Thousands of old people 'drugged'

Thousands of old people 'drugged'


The Lib Dems want tighter checks on care homes
More than 22,000 elderly people in nursing homes are being given powerful sedatives for no medical reason, it has been claimed.
A report by the Liberal Democrats suggests residents who do not need these drugs are being kept sedated to make life easier for staff.

Its health spokesman Paul Burstow said the situation may be even worse in residential homes.

"Quite simply the over medication of older people is abuse," he said.

The report's figures are based on a review of British and international studies in this area and information released to parliament.

Under sedation

It is the Lib Dems' second report on the issue. According to Keep Taking the Medicine 2, up to 22,233 elderly nursing home residents are being given powerful anti-psychotics without medical grounds.

It suggests that another 32,000 elderly people in residential homes may also be at risk.

I find these figures very surprising

Spokeswoman,
National Care Homes Association
The report points to an increase in community prescriptions for antipsychotic drugs - up 6.2% between 1999 and 2002, an increase of 129,000 prescriptions.

It also shows that two out of three GP practices have missed a government target to introduce six-month reviews of medication for all over 75s. These reviews were supposed to have been up and running since April.

Mr Burstow called for tougher action to tackle the problem. He wants tighter checks on care homes and a new criminal offence of neglect of a vulnerable adult.

"Despite mounting evidence that older people are the victims of a chemical cosh in care homes, minister's have failed to get a grip on the problem.

"With serious shortages of specialist staff and little chance of attracting more, the evidence is that care homes are turning to chemical cocktails to make residents easier to manage," he said.

"It can result in death and it denies older people their dignity."

'Homes checked'

The Department of Health said care homes were required to keep "meticulous" drug records on every resident.

"If an inspector from the National Care Standards Commission finds evidence of over-prescription or maladministration of drugs, they have a duty to report such evidence to the police and the professional bodies of those involved for further action," a spokeswoman said.

"We are aware of concerns about the overuse of antipsychotics for older people, particularly those in care homes.

"Since March 2001, as part of the National Service Framework for older people, doctors, pharmacists and other health care professionals have been implementing a medicines management programme where medication is regularly reviewed to ensure that people receive the right medication."

However, the National Care Homes Association dismissed the claims.

"I find these figures very surprising," a spokeswoman told BBC News Online.

"Care homes don't prescribe drugs. Doctors prescribe drugs. If the Lib Dems are saying these drugs are being prescribed for no clinical reason and just to make the life of care home staff easier then it is doctors that need to be called to account."

Human rights law 'fails elderly'

Human rights law 'fails elderly'

Elderly people need better protection, the charity said
Human rights legislation is failing some vulnerable older people, according to charity Help the Aged.
The charity said gaps in the law left older people exposed to mistreatment which cannot be fully investigated or dealt with under the Human Rights Act.

It said that while statutory services were covered under the Act, the majority of care - which is contracted to the private sector - is not.

It urged the government to push forward with its planned equality bill.


The bill, included in the 2005 Queen's Speech, will establish a Commission for Equality and Human Rights, among other aims.

Champion needed

Help the Aged said such a body would have powers to champion older people's rights and could better protect them from abuse and neglect from carers.

The charity said the majority of older people's services - including more than 90% of care home places and nearly 70% of domiciliary care hours - are contracted out to the private sector, which is not covered under the Act.

In a report titled Rights at Risk - Older People and Human Rights, it said "thousands of older people [were given]... little protection in law if abuse takes place".

The charity identified "institutional cultures" which breach human rights and cites major delays in providing essential services, and limited services with little choice.

'Revulsion and anger'

Lack of hygiene, the use of inappropriate restraints, both chemical and physical, and restricted access to food and water have been reported to it as existing in some health and care settings.

Senior policy advisor Tessa Harding: "High-profile and widely publicised cases of elder abuse and neglect rightly provoke revulsion and anger.

"Unless strong new laws are introduced to give older people specific protection against breaches in their human rights, the sorts of cases seen [recently] will continue to be treated only as a matter of poor standards."

She said a commission was needed to "deliver firm, clear messages about older people's human rights to all providers of health and care services".

Why care home drug errors happen

Why care home drug errors happen

By Hannah Goff
BBC News health reporter


When inspectors said thousands of care home residents were being given the wrong medication - the image of a grotty, poorly run nursing home reared its stereotypical head.
How could something so simple as giving a patient their daily dose of tablets be going so wrong, so many times over?


There is concern about over-use of sedatives on elderly patients

But according to care professionals, management of residents' medication is one of the most complex areas of running a nursing home.

And unless fail-safe practices are adhered to, the results can be very damaging to both the resident and the care worker.


Adrian Webb, who runs a specialist mental health unit for elderly mentally ill people in central Manchester, says the main problem is that there are so many people in the chain.

An ordinary patient would take their GPs' prescription to the pharmacist and then, presumably, take the medication in the advised dose.

Each stage of the process there is potential for error.

Adrian Webb

In the case of a care or nursing home resident, there are so many more people inputting into the system.

The prescription might be written by a GP or consultant.

The pharmacist then has to make it up, then it will go to the staff in the home for storage and then a number of different people may be involved in the issuing the medication to patients.

Mr Webb, who is a registered nurse and oversees the distribution of drugs in the Victoria Park Nursing Home, says: "At each stage of the process there is potential for error.

"It has been known for prescriptions to come from doctors that are incorrect.

"But it's very easy for someone to type 100 instead of 10, for example."

Spotting errors

In the Victoria Park Nursing Home, which he runs with his wife, he checks every prescription that arrives from the doctor and pharmacist for errors.

And because he is a registered nurse, he has some knowledge of the kind of doses that ought to be expected and the drugs that are used.

He recalls one instance of receiving a batch of drugs which came from the pharmacist in the wrong dose.

The only way he knew it was incorrect was because he happened to know the higher dose pills were a different colour.

Here, it was his nursing experience which allowed him to spot the error.

But in a care home, where the administering of medicine is not carried out by a nurse, it is questionable whether a mistake such as that would have been noticed.

'Do not disturb'

"If you have not trained as a nurse are you really going to have the confidence to challenge the doctor or pharmacist about his prescription?," asks Mr Webb.

He also says the fact that a nurse could potentially lose his or her job over a medication error tends to focus the mind.

But Laura, a care assistant in the North West, who has worked in three homes for the elderly and one for people with learning disabilities over the past four years, says medication issues are taken extremely seriously indeed.

She said she spent the majority of her breaks drinking her coffee in front of a poster detailing what to do if a drug error occurs.

There are sheets for everybody coming into the home whether they are there for long or short term care and careful records of what medication is distributed, she says.

"The team leader is responsible for handing out the medication.

"There's a sign on the trolleys saying do not disturb while giving out medication and they are not disturbed," she said.

It's using the so-called chemical cosh instead of more skilled techniques to look after someone

Clive Evers
Alzheimer's Society

As in Mr Webb's nursing home, Miss Bates says the person giving out medication is focussed on that job and is not allowed to run off and answer a phone, for example.

But director of information at the Alzheimer's Society, Clive Evers argues the high turnover of staff and their limited training can been the odds are stacked against good practice.

"The workforce is very under-resourced and under-recognised. There is very limited training of staff.

"This is a workforce that would not be allowed to operate with children but they are allowed to work with adults in this way."

With up to 70% of people in care homes suffering from some form dementia, one might expect staff to have training in how to deal with their symptoms.


Care staff say drugs are closely monitored

But guidelines have only recently been adopted by the watchdog, the Commission for Social Care Inspection.

One of the other key worries in care homes is the over-use of anti-psychotic drugs and sedatives.

Over-medication is something that Mr Webb fights against in his nursing home for elderly patients with challenging behaviour.

Patients can take months to get over the heavy sedatives they are given during a visit to hospital, he says.

Good working relationships with GPs and consultants however allows his staff a certain level of control over what the patient is given.

"We give the minimum amount that is needed and it is reviewed regularly.

"We favour as little medication as possible to allow people to be themselves. The more medication people are on - the more problems they have."

But according to Mr Evers, not all homes have even this limited control over what their residents are prescribed.

"Neuroleptics (drugs) are used to limit behaviour that the care workers are not trained to deal with.

"It's using the so-called chemical cosh instead of more skilled techniques to look after someone. And unfortunately we know that this is still happening."

victims of drug errors,

There are more than 20,000 care homes in the UK
Elderly people living in care homes are being put at risk because of sub-standard systems for handing out medicine, according to a report.

University of London researchers found seven in 10 residents were victims of drug errors, having carried out half-day snapshot inspections of 55 homes.

They blamed inadequate information, over-worked staff, poor teamwork and often complex courses of medication.

The government said a review was focusing on medication "weaknesses".

Nurses are part of some of the workforces in specialist units caring for people with severe problems, such as late stage dementia.

This is just one of the many flaws in the current care system which can have a huge impact on the quality of life for many older people

Andrew Harrop, of Age Concern and Help the Aged
But the majority of teams working in more than 20,000 care homes across the UK do not include people with clinical training.

Instead, they rely on pharmacists and GPs signing-off repeat prescription requests without any or little face-to-face contact with residents.

The report, published in the journal Quality and Safety in Health Care, said the system meant vulnerable residents were put at risk.

During the inspections, which took place in the mornings when two-thirds of the daily drug courses would be taken, researchers gathered data on 256 residents.

In total, mistakes were made in 178 cases with many the victims of more than one error.

The most common mistakes involved wrong dosages, insufficient monitoring of residents after medication had been taken and people being given the drug at the wrong time.

But rather than blaming the care home staff, the researchers said they were often not given enough training or information about handing out medication.

The report said part of the problem was that care home residents were increasingly being given complex courses of medication - each resident was taking eight different pills on average a day.

Lead researcher Professor Nick Barber said: "It is a cause for concern. Residents are usually taking a cocktail of medicines and are more susceptible to drug side-effects as a consequences of ageing.

"I think care homes need more help. Pharmacists and GPs should be taking more responsibility and visiting care homes more than they do."

Consequences

The researchers also collated information on the consequences of the mistakes.

Most were only minor, although one resident did suffer a thyroid complication.

Sheila Scott, of the National Care Association, agreed care homes needed help.

"Mistakes are always indefensible, but this is a problem we keep hearing about," she said.

"We need to face this challenge and find a solution. Staff working in care homes are not medically trained and yet they are being asked to look after people with more and more complex needs."

Andrew Harrop, of the newly merged Age Concern and Help the Aged charity, said the findings were "shocking".

"This is just one of the many flaws in the current care system which can have a huge impact on the quality of life for many older people."

The Department of Health said the government was aware of the issue and was now working with the regulator, the Care Quality Commission, which was carrying out a review of healthcare in care homes.

A spokeswoman added: "The review will take into account the findings of the research and will focus on strengthening weaknesses in the systems involving medication."

Seasonal Affective Disorder

/ that time of year again in Britain , 6.00 a.m. in the morning and it is still very dark. The autumn equinox has passed
and the hours of daylight are decreasing rapidly, this will continue until December 21st the shortest day of our year ,
after that the light will increase gradually peaking on June 21 next year.
Enter SAD seasonally affected disorder, or lack of daylight,
SAD () is a type of winter depression that affects an estimated
7% of the UK population every winter between September and April, in particular during
December, January and February.
It is caused by a biochemical imbalance in the hypothalamus due to the shortening of daylight hours and the lack of sunlight in winter.
For many people SAD is a seriously disabling illness, preventing them from functioning normally without continuous medical treatment.
For others, it is a mild but debilitating condition causing discomfort but not severe suffering. We call this subsyndromal SAD or 'winter blues.'
It is estimated that a further 17% of the UK population have this milder form of condition.

Feeding 'speeds surgery recovery'

Feeding 'speeds surgery recovery'

Gastrointestinal surgery patients are often starved after the operation
Cancer patients recover faster from gastrointestinal surgery if given liquid food directly into the intestine, a study suggests.

The research, on 121 patients, was carried out by Cardiff University.

Its authors said widespread adoption of the practice could potentially save the NHS millions of pounds.

Oesophageal, stomach and pancreatic cancer patients usually fast, or are nil by mouth, for up to 10 days after gastrointestinal surgery.


We turned the traditional thinking to starve patients after major gastrointestinal surgery on its head and have found huge benefits

Dr Rachael Barlow
Cardiff University
It had been thought nutrition hampered patients' recovery.

But the latest trial suggests that theory is wrong.

It found that patients given nutrition directly into the intestine through a feeding tube recovered around three days faster than those who were fasted and only given basic hydration.

Patients also developed fewer major complications following their surgery.

The researchers believe that if liquid food is given after all major abdominal and thoracic surgery it could save the NHS millions of pounds.

Lead researcher Dr Rachael Barlow said: "In our trial we turned the traditional thinking to starve patients after major gastrointestinal surgery on its head and have found huge benefits.

"The striking find that nutrients straight after surgery meant patients recovered quicker and tended to have fewer complications has major implications for the NHS.

"It may result in a saving of millions of pounds and could mean fewer bed shortages in hospitals."

High cost

Dr Barlow said a day in an NHS general or surgical ward costs up to £400 and in an intensive care unit it can cost in excess of £1,200.

"In this economic climate of financial deficits, finding new ways of improving care is important for NHS managers.

"The next step is to find out if we can adopt the same practice in other types of surgery and we are hoping to run more clinical trials in this area."

The research will be presented to the National Cancer Research Institute Conference (NCRI).

Professor Sir Kenneth Calman, chair of the NCRI, said: "This result shows that a small change in follow up care after operations for oesophagus, stomach and pancreas cancer could benefit patients and have huge cost saving implications for the NHS.

"We look forward to seeing the results of further clinical trials to see if the same technique of food after surgery can be applied to patients who have had operations for other types of cancers."

Feeding 'speeds surgery recovery'

Feeding 'speeds surgery recovery'
http://www.richimag.co.uk/healthy/
Gastrointestinal surgery patients are often starved after the operation
Cancer patients recover faster from gastrointestinal surgery if given liquid food directly into the intestine, a study suggests.

The research, on 121 patients, was carried out by Cardiff University.

Its authors said widespread adoption of the practice could potentially save the NHS millions of pounds.

Oesophageal, stomach and pancreatic cancer patients usually fast, or are nil by mouth, for up to 10 days after gastrointestinal surgery.


We turned the traditional thinking to starve patients after major gastrointestinal surgery on its head and have found huge benefits

Dr Rachael Barlow
Cardiff University
It had been thought nutrition hampered patients' recovery.

But the latest trial suggests that theory is wrong.

It found that patients given nutrition directly into the intestine through a feeding tube recovered around three days faster than those who were fasted and only given basic hydration.

Patients also developed fewer major complications following their surgery.

The researchers believe that if liquid food is given after all major abdominal and thoracic surgery it could save the NHS millions of pounds.

Lead researcher Dr Rachael Barlow said: "In our trial we turned the traditional thinking to starve patients after major gastrointestinal surgery on its head and have found huge benefits.

"The striking find that nutrients straight after surgery meant patients recovered quicker and tended to have fewer complications has major implications for the NHS.

"It may result in a saving of millions of pounds and could mean fewer bed shortages in hospitals."

High cost

Dr Barlow said a day in an NHS general or surgical ward costs up to £400 and in an intensive care unit it can cost in excess of £1,200.

"In this economic climate of financial deficits, finding new ways of improving care is important for NHS managers.

"The next step is to find out if we can adopt the same practice in other types of surgery and we are hoping to run more clinical trials in this area."

The research will be presented to the National Cancer Research Institute Conference (NCRI).

Professor Sir Kenneth Calman, chair of the NCRI, said: "This result shows that a small change in follow up care after operations for oesophagus, stomach and pancreas cancer could benefit patients and have huge cost saving implications for the NHS.

"We look forward to seeing the results of further clinical trials to see if the same technique of food after surgery can be applied to patients who have had operations for other types of cancers."

Probiotic health claims dismissed

www.richimag.co.uk/yoga/be happy may help

Probiotic health claims dismissed

Lactobacillus bulgaricus is one of the probiotics found in health drinks and yoghurts
General health claims for "probiotic" drinks and yogurts have been dismissed by a team of experts from the European Union.

Their opinions will now be voted on by an EU Committee which is drawing up a list of permitted health claims.

Scientists at the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) looked at 180 health claims for the supplements.

They rejected 10 claims and said a further 170 had not provided enough evidence of their effects.

The manufacturers of best-selling yogurt drinks Actimel and Yakult have submitted claims that will be considered at a later stage.

EFSA is reviewing all health claims made for food products following the introduction of a new EU law in 2006 which stipulated that all medical-sounding marketing claims must be verified.

The European Commission will eventually consider the list drawn up by the EU committee and develop legislation which will be voted on by member states.

No products or health claims will change until that legislation is published.

Albert Flynn, who chairs the EFSA panel which looked at these claims, said the first stage had been to look at general health claims for the products.

More specific claims from individual manufacturers will be considered next.

He said: "It's been an issue for some time that general health claims are made about these products using the family name for the active ingredient and not saying which member of the family is in the pot.

"We expect the claims that will come now from the companies will be much more specific."

A Yakult spokesman said: "Yakult has submitted claims for Lactobacillus casei Shirota, a well characterised probiotic strain unique to Yakult.

"Evidence for its health benefit is based on over 70 human studies and over 70 years of research.

"Opinions on claims submitted for this strain are not expected until 2010."

“What’s driving this new pessimism?

Alleviating Paul Krugman’s Fears
by Julie Walsh

September 29, 2009 @ 1:14 pm

ShareThis PrintThis EmailThis
Mr Krugman in Sunday’s New York Times is worried.

In his article “Cassandras of Science” he says, “What’s driving this new pessimism? Partly it’s the fact that some predicted changes, like a decline in Arctic Sea ice, are happening much faster than expected. Partly it’s growing evidence that feedback loops amplifying the effects of man-made greenhouse gas emissions are stronger than previously realized. For example, it has long been understood that global warming will cause the tundra to thaw, releasing carbon dioxide, which will cause even more warming, but new research shows far more carbon locked in the permafrost than previously thought, which means a much bigger feedback effect.”

He’s worried about the Arctic ice. Here’s the latest, though. Information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that the Arctic has been rebounding for the past two years. (It hasn’t recovered yet, though.) The minimum sea ice extent in September of 2007 was 4.3 million square kilometers. In 2008, it was 4.7 mill sq km. And in 2009, it was 5.1 mill sq km. If the Arctic ice continues to rebound at this rate of 0.4 mill sq km per year, in two years it will be back to the level seen in 2006 of 5.9 mill sq km. And if it continues at this rate for three years? It will pass the Arctic sea ice minimum in 1995 of 6.1 mill sq km.

Krugman is also worried about the warming tundra releasing carbon dioxide and methane. But CO2Science .org says, “Another scare story came from a scientist who said the last IPCC report underestimated the vast amount of carbon contained in the world’s permafrost, which could be released to the air by rising temperatures. However, a detailed study of this phenomenon (Delisle, 2007) indicates that “permafrost will mostly prevail in this century in areas north of 70°N,” even for an unbelievable warming of 8°C, and that “permafrost will survive at depth in most areas between 60° to 70°N.” This scenario is also supported by the small amount of organic carbon released from permafrost during previous periods of warming, such as the Medieval Warm Period and Holocene Climatic Optimum, when no significant methane excursions were detected in ice core records of either Antarctica or Greenland.” If the Medieval Warm Period, which was warmer than today, didn’t have increased methane, then we won’t see it either.

If Mr Krugman is concerned about the sea bed deposits of methane called clathrates, he would be comforted reading about this six-year study by Petrenko at the University of Colorado, then. Petrenko says, “The results definitely help us to say that it doesn’t seem methane clathrates respond to warming by releasing lots of methane into the atmosphere, which is really good news for global warming.” Petrenko also said that temperatures in Greenland 12,000 years ago had increased about 10 degrees Celsius in 20 years. But it took 150 years for methane levels in the atmosphere to increase by 50 percent. Therefore, the methane did not contribute to that increase.

Arctic hockey stick graphs that claim that the Arctic is warmer now than in the past two thousand years such as this one, rely upon “previously published data from glacial ice and tree rings that were calibrated against the instrumental temperature record.” That tree ring data is now known to have been incorrect. When those graphs are corrected, they will likely show that around 1000AD the Arctic was warmer but that runaway global warming obviously did not occur.

I can understand that Krugman hasn’t followed the science, but to make comments like this one, Krugman just looks very deceived: “And the industries of the past have armies of lobbyists in place right now; the industries of the future don’t.” The money behind “green” is actually enormous.
« Is Obama Administration Hiding True Cost of Cap-and-Trade?PG&E, Exelon, Duke — progressive companies or energy-rationing profiteers? »



This Post has No Responses, Be the First to Comment

"But we also found that after some time the rainfall patterns go back to what they were before and slowly start changing again. It's a cyclic change t

Uncertainties surround future monsoons

By Navin Singh Khadka
Environment reporter, BBC News



Some scientists fear climate change will adversely affect the monsoon season


It is almost halfway through the rainy season, and the monsoon in many parts of South Asia continues to remain unreliable.

In some places it has been crippling weak, while in others it has been devastatingly intense.

There are places reeling from drought, yet at the same time there are areas that have been hit by torrential rains, triggering floods and landslides in a very short span of time.

This has made the lives of millions of people difficult and has left them increasingly worried for the future.

Very little of the arable land is irrigated, and local populations depend on monsoon rainfall for agriculture.


Crops in the region are dependent upon the annual monsoon rains
The monsoon clouds have weakened in several parts of the region and the variable and erratic rains have left weather forecasters scratching their heads.

This failure of the monsoons to behave as expected has led to the question of whether climate change is to blame.

Experts differ on whether these changes are directly linked to climate.

"This year's monsoon behaviour cannot yet be attributed to climate change as it is still within the observed natural variability of the monsoon," said Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

"Our assessment of climate model simulations for the current and the next century indicate no significant deviation until the middle of the 21st Century. Thereafter, the monsoon rainfall will continue to increase by 8-10% from current levels."

A regional research centre in Bangladesh found what it called "cyclic changes", but has identified no effects so far that can be attributed to climate change.

A gloomy forecast

The South Asian monsoon normally begins in June and lasts around four months. The Indian Meteorological Department in April had forecast an optimistic 96% of long-term average rainfall.


Without the rains, young crops soon perish and die
But in the last week of June, by which time the monsoon clouds should normally have moved northward from the Indian ocean, they were hardly moving.

With farmers in Northern India postponing their crop plantations and authorities cutting the supply of stored water for irrigation, the government had to scale down its rainfall forecast to 93% of the long-term average rainfall.

In neighbouring Bangladesh, the situation was even worse; it saw 80% lower rainfall than what would normally be the case.

An unusually long dry spell fanned several wildfires earlier this year. Nepal too saw delays in the arrival of its precious monsoon clouds.

When they reached northern areas of the region by the third week of July, many places began to see heavy precipitation.

Bangladesh's capital, Dhaka, saw more than 33cm of rainfall in about 24 hours - the greatest amount for many years.

Floods have wreaked havoc in many parts of north-east India, and nearly three dozen people have died in Nepal as a result of monsoon-triggered landslides.

At least another dozen are missing from remote Nepalese mountain areas.

Yet many areas in this region still remain parched.

Until the middle of this week, northern and south-western parts of Bangladesh have had about 40% lower rainfall than the average.

Some parts of northern India have been declared drought-hit by local governments.

Almost the same is the case in eastern Nepal, where rainfall is around 50% lower than normal.

Meteorological officials in Pakistan say most parts of the country have remained more or less dry, with average rainfall limited to only 50% of normal precipitation.

"Even where it has rained, the rainfall is around 30% lower than normal," said Qamar Zaman Chaudhary, director-general of Pakistan's met office.

"Figures [from recent years] show that monsoon rainfall is gradually decreasing - year on year."

Patchy cloud

Over the past five years, even though total rainfall has not deviated far from the average in these countries, the distribution has been quite uneven.


Farmers could struggle to keep their crops alive
Some places have experienced heavy rainfall while others have seen far smaller amounts of rain and have been hit by drought.

And dangerously unpredictable rainfall such as that which claimed hundreds of lives in Mumbai in 2005 is on the rise.

In yet another unusual development, places that received smaller amounts of rainfall have begun to receive more rain. While what used to be relatively wet areas are now becoming drier.

Some researchers suggest that this is a natural "shift" in the pattern of rainfall.

"We studied three 30-year window periods from 1951 to 2000 and found that there was a slow shift in the rainfall scenarios," said Sujit Kumar Deb Sarma, a researcher with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Meteorological Research Centre in Bangladesh.

"Places that got more rain are receiving lower rainfall and vice versa.

"But we also found that after some time the rainfall patterns go back to what they were before and slowly start changing again. It's a cyclic change that has been happening [for] years."

But authorities in Pakistan believe the falling monsoon rainfall may have been the result of climate change.

"There may have been some impacts of climate change," said Mr Chaudhry of the Pakistan Met Office.

"We know that the El Nino events have been affecting our rainfall all these years, but climate change could be aggravating the situation even more."

Meteorologists in Nepal too think global warming may have some role in the changing monsoon pattern the country has been experiencing.

"There are so many factors including the El Nino effect that have been affecting the monsoon but we cannot say that these changes are not because of global warming," said Mani Ratna Shakya, head of the weather forecasting division.


The monsoon season is welcomed by most people in an otherwise arid region


International studies have also pointed at the relationship between the monsoon and climate change.

A study by researchers at Purdue University, US, found that the South Asian monsoon could be weakened and delayed as a result of rising temperatures in the future.

"Climate change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause lower summer precipitation, a delay to the start of the monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods."

Another report recently prepared for the Australian government has shown that potentially greater threats could be abrupt changes to the oceans and atmosphere that lead to irreversible switches in weather or ocean patterns - so-called tipping points.

"An example is the Indian monsoon. According to some models that could switch into a drier mode in a matter of years," the report's author Will Steffen, executive director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University, told Reuters.

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC had this to say about the monsoon: "It is likely that warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability.

"Changes in the monsoon mean duration and strength depend on the details of the (greenhouse gases) emission scenario."

Do the changes mean weather forecasters will have a tough time ahead predicting the monsoon as they have had this year?

Indian Meteorological Department chief BP Yadav admitted that could be the case: "There are already some indications of increase in the variability of weather parameters, so when you have a high variability in any events like rainfall or temperature, definitely the work of predicting them becomes more difficult," he said.

India's water use 'unsustainable'

India's water use 'unsustainable'
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website



Much of the water used in paddy fields is pumped from underground


Parts of India are on track for severe water shortages, according to results from Nasa's gravity satellites.

The Grace mission discovered that in the country's north-west - including Delhi - the water table is falling by about 4cm (1.6 inches) per year.

Writing in the journal Nature, they say rainfall has not changed, and water use is too high, mainly for farming.

The finding is published two days after an Indian government report warning of a potential water crisis.

That report noted that access to water was one of the main factors governing the pace of development in the world's second most populous nation.

The situation has to stop today or tomorrow

Dr Raj Gupta
CIMMYT


New crops needed to avoid famines
About a quarter of India is experiencing drought conditions, as the monsoon rains have been weaker and later than usual.

But weather and climatic factors are not responsible for water depletion in the northwestern states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, according to the Nasa study.

"We looked at the rainfall record and during this decade, it's relatively steady - there have been some up and down years but generally there's no drought situation, there's no major trend in rainfall," said Matt Rodell, a hydrologist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center near Washington DC.

"So naturally we would expect the groundwater level to stay where it is unless there is an excessive stress due to people pumping too much water, which is what we believe is happening."

State of Grace

The Grace (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission uses two satellites flying along the same orbit, one just in front of the other.

Minute differences in the Earth's gravitational pull cause the two craft to shift slightly in their positions relative to one another.


The Grace satellites provide a twin eye on Earth gravity


Grace twins measure 'potato' Earth
The mission can measure groundwater depletion because the amount of water in aquifers has a small gravitational attraction for the satellites.

Three years ago, Grace scientists noted a loss of water in parts of Africa - but the Indian result is more striking.

"Over the six-year timeframe of this study, about 109 cubic kilometres of water were depleted from this region - more than double the capacity of India's largest reservoir is gone between 2002 and 2008," Dr Rodell told the BBC.

The northwest of India is heavily irrigated; and the Indian government's State of the Environment report, published on Tuesday, noted that irrigation increased rice yields seven-fold in some regions compared to rain-fed fields.

Dr Raj Gupta, a scientist working for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), said that the current drought would lead to more groundwater extraction.

"Farmers receive no rains so they are pumping a lot more water than the government expected, so the water table will fall further," he said.

"The farmers have to irrigate, and that's why they're pumping more water, mining more water. The situation has to stop today or tomorrow."

Dr Gupta noted that some farmers might be able to switch from rice to crops that demand less water, such as maize or sorghum.

But, he said, that would depend on government policies - which have traditionally promoted rice - and on market demand.

Climate change is likely to be a constraint too, with the area of South Asia suitable for wheat forecast to halve over the next 50 years.

forcing motorists to use biofuels

Biofuels To Be Added To All UK Petrol

1:42pm UK, Monday April 14, 2008

New rules forcing motorists to use biofuels are about to come into force - even though some campaigners say they may actually make climate change worse.

Fuel should be 'greener'

The introduction of the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO) on Tuesday will mean that all petrol sold in the UK will have to include at least 2.5% biofuels, rising to 5% by 2010.

But some scientists and green groups have voiced fears that they may contribute more greenhouse gases through deforestation and the use of fertilisers than they save.

There are also concerns the switch to energy crops from food production - including a large-scale drive in the US to produce bioethanol from maize - is contributing to rising fuel prices around the world.

Ahead of the RTFO's introduction, the Government insisted the gradual introduction of biofuels will cut millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide, and said it would not go beyond the 5% target unless it was sure it could be done sustainably.

But Friends of the Earth demanded transport's greenhouse gases, which account for around 28% of overall UK emissions, be tackled by investing in better public transport and mandatory emissions limits on cars.

A survey for the environmental group showed almost nine out of 10 people did not know that the renewable fuels - made from crops such as sugar cane or maize - would be required in their vehicles.

Of the 55% of those questioned who knew what biofuels were, fewer than one in seven thought they were the best way to reduce emissions from road transport, the YouGov poll found.

Friends of the Earth also said two-thirds were not aware that biofuels could be contributing to the destruction of rainforests cleared to make way for growing the crops.

FoE's biofuels campaigner Kenneth Richter said: "People want to see real green transport solutions that will make a difference to their lives - like better transport and smarter cars that burn less fuel.

"It's now up to the Government to set us on the right track."

But TransportMinister Jim Fitzpatrick said: "Gradually introducing biofuels could help save millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide in the next few years and the UK has done more than any other country to make sure they are produced sustainably."

CONTRACEPTION IS “GREENEST” TECHNOLOGY

CONTRACEPTION IS “GREENEST” TECHNOLOGY

Family planning cheapest way to combat climate change

/wakeup Milliband Brown Harman

Contraception is almost five times cheaper than conventional green technologies as a means of combating climate change, according to research published today (Wednesday, September 9).

Each $7 (£4) spent on basic family planning over the next four decades would reduce global CO2 emissions by more than a tonne. To achieve the same result with low-carbon technologies would cost a minimum of $32 (£19). The UN estimates that 40 per cent of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended.

The report, Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost, commissioned by the Optimum Population Trust from the London School of Economics*, concludes that “considered purely as a method of reducing future CO2 emissions”, family planning is more cost-effective than leading low-carbon technologies. It says family planning should be seen as one of the primary methods of emissions reduction.

Meeting basic family planning needs along the lines suggested would save 34 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of CO2 between now and 2050 – equivalent to nearly six times the annual emissions of the US and almost 60 times the UK’s annual total.

Roger Martin, chair of OPT, said the findings vindicated OPT’s stance that population growth must be included in the climate change debate. “It’s always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions – the carbon tonnage can’t shoot down, as we want, while the population keeps shooting up. The taboo on mentioning this fact has made the whole climate change debate so far somewhat unreal. Stabilising population levels has always been essential ecologically, and this study shows it’s economically sensible too.

“The population issue must now be added into the negotiations for the Copenhagen climate change summit in December.** This part of the solution is so easy, and so cheap, and would bring so many other social and economic benefits, from health and education to the empowerment of women. It would also ease all the other environmental problems we face – the rapid shrinkage of soil, fresh water, forests, fisheries, wildlife and oil reserves and the looming food crisis.

“All of these would be easier to solve with fewer people, and ultimately impossible to solve with ever more. Meanwhile each additional person, especially each rich person in the OECD countries, reduces everyone’s share of the planet’s dwindling resources even faster. Non-coercive population policies are urgently needed in all countries. The taboo on discussing this is no longer defensible.”

The study, based on the principle that “fewer people will emit fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide”, models the consequences of meeting all “unmet need” for family planning, defined as the number of women who wish to delay or terminate childbearing but who are not using contraception.*** One recent estimate put this figure at 200 million. UN data suggest that meeting unmet need for family planning would reduce unintended births by 72 per cent, reducing projected world population in 2050 by half a billion to 8.64 billion. Between 2010 and 2050 12 billion fewer “people-years” would be lived – 326 billion against 338 billion under current projections.

The 34 gigatonnes of CO2 saved in this way would cost $220 billion – roughly $7 a tonne. However, the same CO2 saving would cost over $1trillion if low-carbon technologies were used.

The $7 cost of abating a tonne of CO2 using family planning compares with $24 (£15) for wind power, $51 (£31) for solar, $57-83 (£35-51) for coal plants with carbon capture and storage, $92 (£56) for plug-in hybrid vehicles and $131 (£80) for electric vehicles.

However, the study may understate the CO2 savings available because the estimates of unmet need are based on married women alone, yet some studies suggest up to 40 per cent of young unmarried women have had unwanted pregnancies.

Mr. Martin added: “The potential for tackling climate change by addressing population growth through better family planning, alongside the conventional approach, is clearly enormous and we shall be urging all those involved in the Copenhagen process to take it fully on board.

David Milliband thought this was a good idea,?

Severn's tidal barrage rejected

The inquiry said a larger barrage would seriously damage the estuary

An inquiry into harnessing tidal power in the Severn Estuary has rejected plans for a multi-billion pound barrage between Weston-super-Mare and Cardiff.

The investigation was carried out over 12 months by Liberal Democrat MPs, Welsh Assembly Members and councillors in the West of England and Wales.
The inquiry said it feared the large barrage would damage the estuary.
It recommended instead that a smaller barrage is built near the Second Severn Crossing.
The inquiry also urged investment in technology to help store tidal power.
'Economic damage'

Northavon MP Steve Webb on why a smaller Severn barrage is the better option, financially and for the estuary environment.

The commission's inquiry said a larger Severn barrage would "do serious damage to the estuary by wiping out around 80% of the 'inter-tidal habitat'."
It also claims the larger barrage option is less cost-effective than the shorter barrage and "would cause serious economic damage to the port of Bristol".
The inquiry held evidence sessions at Cardiff, Bristol and Portishead and has studied the documents which have been prepared by the government as part of its own appraisal of options for Severn Tidal power.
The commission was jointly chaired by Northavon MP Steve Webb and Mike German AM.
"We believe that a smaller barrage offers the best mix of power output with reduced environmental impact and also offers the chance for a major upgrade to public transport through Wales and the West of England," said Steve Webb.
Morgan Parry, Head of WWF Cymru said: "We welcome the rejection of the Cardiff -Weston barrage which would undoubtedly cause significant environmental damage to the internationally-important Severn Estuary."

not green atall

Department of Energy and Climate Change

South West of England Regional Development Agency

Welsh Assembly Government

Cymraeg

Consultation

Have Your Say

Consultation Summary

Download

Severn Tidal Power Phase One Consultation.pdf3.1 MB

You will need Adobe Reader to view this file Download Adobe Reader free

Each chapter of the entire Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study Consultation can be accessed from the sidebar.

You can also download PDFs of the entire consultation and the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) scoping report from the Downloads section or read the Executive Summary of the consultation on this page.

The purpose of this consultation is to seek views on:

• The scope of the Strategic Environmental Assessment that is being carried out within the feasibility study.
• Which of the 10 possible Severn tidal power schemes under consideration will be short-listed for detailed impact assessment during 2009.
• How the feasibility study is being conducted, the issues it is considering and how these are being approached.

If you do not wish to respond online, please see

Severn tidal power

Severn tidal power – an NSIP?

Submitted by Angus_Walker on 24 August 2009 - 4:48pm.

This is entry number 17 of a blog on the implementation of the Planning Act 2008. Click here for a link to the whole blog.

Last month the government reported on its consultation to harness tidal power from the River Severn. This is likely to be the first major project to tap into one of the last unexploited types of natural energy in and around the UK. Unlike wave and wind power, tidal power is predictable in terms of timing and scale. Today’s entry looks at the shortlisted schemes and examines whether they will have to seek approval under the Planning Act 2008 as Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs).

Five schemes were shortlisted (the list was not made any shorter by the consultation). Three of them are barrages – i.e. they span the estuary – and two are lagoon projects – i.e. they impound water at one shore and let it in and out. The options are therefore not mutually exclusive.

The Beachley Barrage is the furthest upstream – it is upstream of the Wye near Chepstow. It is estimated to generate 2.7 terawatt hours per year (TWh/year).

The Shoots Barrage is next – it crosses the Severn near the road bridges from north of Avonmouth to south of Caldicot, and is estimated to generate 1.6TWh/year.

The final barrage is the Cardiff-Weston Barrage, whose name suggests its route. It is the most expensive and the furthest downstream, estimated to generate 16.8TWh/year or 5% of the UK’s electricity needs.

The upstream lagoon on the Welsh side is the Fleming Lagoon between Newport and the road bridges, estimated to generate 2.3TWh/year.

Finally, the downstream lagoon on the English side is the Bridgwater Bay Lagoon between Hinkley Point (another source of low-carbon electricity as it is the site of a nuclear power station) and Weston-super-Mare. It would generate 2.6TWh/year.

Would any of these be NSIPs? The two questions are whether the Act applies to generating stations in Wales or off Welsh waters, and whether these projects are above the size threshold as offshore ones of at least 100MW.

The answer to the first question is that the Act does apply to generating stations in Wales as well as England (although note that not all NSIP categories do apply in Wales), and also to Welsh as well as English waters.

For the answer to the second question, as is fairly often the case in assessing NSIPs, the project is given in different units and must be converted. In this case, one must convert terawatt hours per year to megawatts. A terawatt is a million megawatts (from the Greek for ‘monster’, rather than the Greek for just ‘big’) and there are about 8766 hours in a year, so one can calculate that 100MW is equivalent to 1.147TWh/year.

All five projects are therefore, not surprisingly, above the threshold and will have to use the new regime if they are applied for after 1 March 2010. As the next step is to look into the feasibility of each scheme, and applications are not expected to be made until 2014, this will certainly be the case for those that go ahead. So the answer to the question posed in the title is 'yes - and it may be more than one'.

If you would like to find out more about the application of these schemes to the new regime, please

Colostrinin

Colostrinin™

ReGen Therapeutics Plc was formed in February 1998 to develop Colostrinin™, a proline-rich polypeptide complex derived from mammalian colostrum. The complex and the peptides within it are viewed as having potential utility in neurodegenerative illnesses such as Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s Disease, Multiple Sclerosis and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

Colostrinin™ was originally identified by scientists working in Poland, where early clinical studies, dating back to 1995, had indicated a significant potential benefit to Alzheimer’s disease sufferers. ReGen therefore conducted a placebo-controlled clinical trial of it’s own on Alzheimer’s sufferers in Poland, which completed in mid-2002. Results from the trial showed 33% of patients achieved stabilisation or improvement in their disease condition after 30 weeks of treatment, with efficacy demonstrated in both mild and moderate symptom groups. A good safety profile and no Serious Adverse Events or other safety concerns were observed. An article reviewing the results of this trial was published in the February 2004 issue of the Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease.

Since 2003 ReGen has been investigating the possibility of developing a nutraceutical version of Colostrinin™. The natural origin and nature of Colostrinin™ means that it conforms to the general criteria for non-pharmaceutical health supplements, so the Company formulated a nutraceutical development plan which has run in parallel with the continuing development of pharmaceutical drug-candidates based on the constituent peptides of the Colostrinin™ complex. ReGen has filed a substantial number of patent applications with various patent authorities throughout the World. These patents are targeted at protecting both discoveries in the field of the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and at wider applications for Colostrinin™ and its constituent peptides in other neurodegenerative disease areas. Most of ReGen’s patent applications are still in the process of examination by the various national patent authorities, but up to September 2007, the Company has had its main “use” patent on Colostrinin™ granted in the United Kingdom, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, South Korea, Czech Republic and South Africa and another three patents (under licence from University of Texas Medical Branch) granted in the USA. ReGen’s subsidiary, ReGen Biotech Ltd had a patent on the use of Colostrinin™ in combination with other materials as a dietary supplement, granted in the UK in October 2002.

Last updated January 2008

'Celtic fringe'

UK mammals have 'Celtic fringe'

By Judith Burns Science and environment reporter, BBC News

Field voles re-occupied the British isles after the last ice age

http://www.richimag.co.uk/chickenoregg/ tests on British populations of small mammals show a genetically distinct "Celtic Fringe", say scientists at The University of York.

Voles, shrews, mice and stoats in northern and western areas have different DNA from their counterparts in other parts of the British Isles.

The paper, in Proceedings B journal, says the different populations arrived at the end of the last ice age.

The authors say the work sheds light on the origins of the Celtic people.

The traditional view is that the ancestors of British Celts spread from central Europe during the Iron Age and were later displaced by the arrival of the Anglo Saxons.

However, recent genetic studies have challenged this theory, suggesting a much earlier origin, dating back to the end of the last ice age, 19,000 years ago.

This paper suggests that the study of small mammal populations could help resolve the controversy.

Seven species

The team compared the mitrochondrial DNA of seven small mammal species, this being the best genetic marker for studying colonisation history.

The seven species were three types of vole: bank vole, water vole and field vole; two types of shrew: common shrew and pygmy shrew; the house mouse and the stoat.

Lead author, Professor Jeremy Searle, told BBC News: "We found this extraordinary pattern that within the British Isles you get these two genetic types for a number of species. One having peripheral distribution and one having a central and eastern distribution.

"Seeing that distribution and trying to think how it came about was interesting in itself - but also the fact that it has this similarity with the distribution of cultural and genetic types in humans."

Professor Searle said that the mitrochondrial DNA in the two groups was sufficiently different that "they could not have originated one from the other within Britain but must have originated outside Britain and come in as two separate entities".

The authors say that both types of each species must have arrived before Britain was cut off from Europe by rising sea levels 8,000 years ago.

They believe that the type now confined to the Celtic periphery colonised Britain first, sometime after the end of the last ice age, and spread throughout the British Isles.

The global climate remained mild until 12,900 years ago when a sudden drop in temperature brought permafrost back to the British Isles for more than 1,000 years. This caused a drop in the small mammal population.

A new wave

When temperatures rose again a new wave of small mammals colonised Britain and replaced the now sparse populations of the first type everywhere except on the northern and western edges.

Professor Searle suggests that a similar pattern is likely to apply to humans as there is archaeological evidence of humans in Britain after the last ice age, 19,000 years ago.

He said: "It could be that, like the small mammals, this first wave of humans did not do well during the cold spell but managed to hang on. Once it was over, another group came in and replaced the first type everywhere apart from the peripheral areas.

"And so one could suggest that the human Celtic Fringe was set up by exactly the same sort of events that set up the animal Celtic Fringe.

He suggests that the Celtic Fringe has since been reinforced culturally by different sets of people occupying the fringe areas and also what is now England, for instance the Romans, Anglo Saxons and Normans.

"This fits well with studies that others are doing on human genetic patterns and with the growing idea that the Celtic genetic type has been there a very long time."

Dr John Stewart of The Natural History Museum said he appreciated the paper's realistic approach to the issue: "It is only by looking at a variety of different organisms that we can see genetic biogeographic patterns emerging."

"It is really important to treat humans as part of a suite of animals that were being pushed and pulled around the landscape by changes in climate."

Looking for clues in the ivory jungle

Looking for clues in the ivory jungle

By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News website, The Hague

Opinions are divided over whether trading ivory puts elephants at risk

"It's a statement that's very easy to make, but much more difficult to prove."

At the opening news conference for the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) meeting, Willem Wijnstekers gave more answers on ivory than anything else - in particular, on the question of whether even a very limited legal ivory trade would stimulate elephant poaching.

Some animal welfare groups believe there is a link.

"Whenever CITES even talks about ivory sales, poaching goes up," Peter Pueschel of the International Fund for Animal Welfare (Ifaw) had said at a pre-meeting briefing.

The argument is that poachers will spot an opportunity to introduce illegal ivory into the market if a network for legal trade is operating.

Others, including CITES secretary-general Mr Wijnstekers, are not so sure.

"The data we have from Etis [the Elephant Trade Information System] is that there is no correlation between decisions made at CITES and the illegal trade," he said.

Any legal trade is an incentive to the illegal trade Patrick Omondi, Kenya Wildlife Service Send us your comments

Two things had sparked this debate. Just before the meeting opened, a CITES technical committee had decided that a one-off sale of stockpiled ivory from Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, approved in principle in 2002, could go ahead.

And the same three countries plus Zimbabwe are asking for annual ivory export quotas, opposed by another African bloc under the informal leadership of Kenya and Mali.

Getting some firm answers would seem to be a key requirement for the conservation community.

No link seen

Etis is a database of all seizures of illegal ivory made by customs officers, police or anyone else in authority globally. It documents where, when, how much, who, and as much information as possible about the route involved, including countries of origin, transit and destination.

CITES formally established Etis under the management of Traffic, the wildlife monitoring network run by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and WWF, in 1997, eight years after Traffic began gathering data independently.

"We have something like 12,378 seizure records in the database now," says Tom Milliken, the organisation's director for eastern and southern Africa.

Seizures can only give an indication of the amount of poaching, because authorities vary widely in their competence and inclination to intercept valuable shipments.

Nevertheless, he maintains: "It captures the general trend, and if we see that the trend is going down for example, it really is going down."

A graph shows no apparent relationship between CITES meetings where ivory sales have regularly been discussed, and seizures. Even the only previous one-off sale, approved in 1997 and enacted in the years following, made no visible bump on the graph.

"After the one-off sale, we had six years of a decreasing trend," says Mr Milliken, "so the data does not support the hypothesis."

Local knowledge

But maybe Etis is the wrong database. Ideally, perhaps, you would use records of poaching, not of seizures.

That was the case which the Kenyan government made to CITES in 2002.

"There have been numerous reports by wildlife officials suggesting a rise in elephant poaching since CoP10 (the CITES meeting where the one-off sale was approved)," its submission read.

Hauls of illegal ivory continue to be seized around the world

"Though many of these are of necessity anecdotal, they are nonetheless of concern not only because of the numbers involved, but because they indicate apparent resurgence of poaching in areas that had been relatively quiet."

It is an argument that the Kenyan authorities stand by today.

"Any legal trade is an incentive to the illegal trade," says Patrick Omondi, head of species conservation and management at Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS).

"That's why we are pushing for a 20-year total moratorium on any legal sales."

Not convinced

The problem for Kenya's case lies in that word "anecdotal", which is to scientists what a rabbit is to a hungry dog.

Anecdotal evidence presents no problems for NGOs such as Ifaw whose positions are based largely on ethical conviction.

I think a lot of people act as they do because it's a vehicle for fundraising, and if you can stimulate a sense of urgency, you'll get people motivated and donating money Tom Milliken, Traffic

It is a problem for CITES itself, and for organisations such WWF and Traffic, which all recognise that animal trade can bring money to needy communities, even generate funds for conservation, and demand hard evidence that trade is doing damage before they will back a ban.

In an attempt to get some firm numbers, CITES has set up another monitoring system called Mike - Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants - which does exactly what its name suggests.

'Hunting for solutions'

It is gathering data from more than 70 sources in Africa and Asia, and aims to provide a comprehensive picture of how many elephants are being poached, and where and when.

"There wasn't really any hard data before the year 2000, and that's why Mike was set up," says Mike's data analyst Julian Blanc.

"We're really concentrating on getting baseline data, and there haven't been any sales since Mike began. We're pretty confident that we will be able to pick up any upsurges in poaching."

But it will take Mike six years to build up an accurate picture. In the meantime, CITES has some decisions to make.

Precautionary principle

Ifaw urges a precautionary approach. "They (Etis) don't believe poaching is caused by the legal trade - we say it is," says the organisation's international advisor for Africa, Michael Wamithi, a former KWS officer.

"In 1997, we did not change our law enforcement procedures at all, so there could be no other reason for the upsurge we saw in poaching other than poachers were anticipating that the legal trade would be permitted."

CITES EXPLAINED Threatened organisms listed on three appendices depending on level of risk Appendix 1 - all international trade banned Appendix 2 - international trade monitored and regulated Appendix 3 - trade bans by individual governments, others asked to assist "Uplisting" - moving organism to a more protective appendix, "downlisting" - the reverse Conferences of the Parties (COPs) held every three years CITES administered by UN Environment Programme (Unep)

One of the ironies, Tom Milliken points out, is that many of the countries backing the 20-year moratorium bid have an appalling record on making illegal ivory seizures.

"Mali, for example, has reported one seizure in 18 years, but has been implicated in a further 42 [incidents of illegal trading]," he says.

And the welfare groups, he says, may not be helping.

"I think a lot of people act as they do because it's a vehicle for fundraising," he says, "and if you can stimulate a sense of urgency, you'll get people motivated and donating money.

"Some groups with lots of money have not contributed anything to closing down unregulated markets in Africa."

It is an argument which is likely to run through the second week of this CITES conference, as southern African states with abundant elephant populations, generally good records on poaching and a small but well-regulated usage of elephant products, seek further liberalisation, while others seek to shut the whole trade down

Chinese influence

Kenya seizes massive ivory haul

The price of ivory has shot up and can fetch more than $1,000 per kg

Kenyan authorities have seized almost 700kg of ivory worth millions of dollars in a night-time raid at the country's main airport.

The Kenya Wildlife Service says a similar amount was intercepted in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

Both consignments - with a potential value of more than $1.5m (£938,000) - were reportedly headed for Thailand.

The BBC's Will Ross in Nairobi says poaching is on the increase mostly owing to high demand for ivory in Asia.

Our reporter says it is not yet clear whether the ivory, recovered at Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta Airport, had been trafficked from other parts of the continent or was from East Africa.

Twenty years ago the world's elephant population was plummeting and the trade in ivory was banned.

But over the past decade the ban has been periodically relaxed and occasional supervised ivory auctions have been allowed.

Chinese influence

Officials say the sales have fuelled demand for ivory in Asian countries, especially China, contributing to a sharp increase in elephant poaching.

So far this year poachers in Kenya have killed 128 elephants for their ivory; last year 98 were killed.

In July, Kenyan authorities intercepted 16 elephant tusks and two rhinoceros horns being illegally exported to Laos from Mozambique.

Some wildlife experts have attributed the increase in elephant poaching to the presence of Chinese workers in Africa.

With demand for ivory products increasing back home, some Chinese workers on low salaries in Kenya are reported to have become middlemen in the ivory trade.

And because of the high demand for ivory across Asia, the price of ivory has shot up and can fetch more than $1,000 a kilo.