Showing posts with label Climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Climate change. Show all posts

Tuesday 11 September 2012

Carbon emissions linked to Europe's hay fever rise


Carbon emissions linked to Europe's hay fever rise

Pollen from catkinsThe pollen season is getting longer in Europe, partly influenced by climate change

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Carbon dioxide emissions may be raising pollen counts in European cities, according to a continent-wide study.
Researchers from 13 EU nations analysed pollen levels for more than 20 species of tree and plant.
They found that many, including several that cause allergies such as hay fever, correlated with rising CO2 levels.
Presenting their study at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) annual meeting, scientists said city planners might need to review which trees they plant.
Hay fever and other allergies appear to be rising across Europe.
In the UK, GP diagnoses of allergic rhinitis, which includes hay fever, rose by a third between 2001 and 2005.
It has been suggested that higher temperatures might be causing plants to produce more pollen.
But by comparing pollen counts during relatively hotter and relatively cooler years, this latest study found temperature was not the cause.
Annette Menzel from the Technical University of Munich said other possible factors were eliminated as well.
"We thought the increase in the amount of pollen could be related to land use changes, but we don't observe this," she told BBC News.
"We tried to link it to temperature, but that's not possible.
"So the only effect that's left would be a CO2 effect; and we know from experiments in the real world and in climate chambers that CO2 does promote the amount of pollen [that trees produce]."
Urban conundrum

Start Quote

The season of suffering for people with hay fever is getting more serious”
Annette MenzelTechnical University of Munich
Data in the study came from pollen monitoring stations in the 13 nations, supplemented by tree cover information from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and weather data.
Not all the 25 species studied show the same trend - pollen counts from some have actually gone down.
But 60% of species have seen an increase in pollen production across the decades of the study period, including nine species known to produce allergenic pollen.
There were also differences between trends in different countries, with pollen counts falling in a few.
Perhaps the most intriguing finding was that pollen counts have generally increased with CO2 inside cities, but not outside.
The researchers suggest this could be down to the longer lifetime of ozone molecules outside urban areas.
Pollen grains under a microscopePollen causes inflammation of the air passages by stimulating the immune system
The gas is known to disrupt plant growth.
Although more research remains to be done, Professor Menzel's team suggests further rises in pollen counts probably lie ahead, given that CO2 concentrations are rising.
The increasing length of pollen seasons in Europe is linked to the introduction of plants and trees from other continents, in addition to any impact of CO2.
"In Germany, it is now only in November that we do not see allergenic pollen - so the season of suffering for people with hay fever is getting more serious," she said.
"On a local scale, planners should be more aware of what sort of problems may arise from the urban trees they're planting.
"Often they use birch trees, for example, because of their nice silver colour, not aware that they leave allergenic problems behind."
Many of the researchers on this project are involved in wider efforts to plot climate impacts on the timing of natural events such as plant flowering, egg laying and bird migration across Europe - the field of phenology.
The hay fever research presented at EGU will shortly be written up for formal scientific publication.

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Tuesday 15 November 2011

The hockey stick controversy


The term "hockey stick graph" has been used of numerous reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last 600 or 1,000 years: by December 2005 more than a dozen reconstructions showed the basic finding that late 20th century temperatures significantly exceeded previous 

Hockey stick controversy

Hockey stick controversy

The hockey stick controversy refers to debates over the technical correctness and implications for
 global warming of graphs showing reconstructed estimates of thetemperature record of the past 1000 years;
 at a political level, the debate is about the use of these graphs to convey complex science to the public, and
 the question of the 
robustness of the assessment presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
By the late 1990s a number of competing teams were using proxy indicators to estimate the temperature record 
of past centuries, and finding suggestions that recent warming was exceptional.[1] In 1998
 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes produced the first quantitative
 hemispheric-scale reconstruction, from an analysis of a variety of measures, which they summarised
 in a graph going back to 1400 showing recent measured temperatures increasing sharply.
 Their 1999 paper extended this study back to 1000, and included a graph which was featured prominently in the
 2001 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report(TAR) as 
supporting the mainstream view of climate scientists that there had been a relatively sharp rise in temperatures
 during the second half of the 20th century. It became a focus of dispute for those opposed to this
 strengthening scientific consensus.[2] The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to
 describe the pattern, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming the hockey stick's "shaft", followed
 by a sharp increase corresponding to the "blade".[3]
In 2003, Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas argued against this pattern in a paper which was quickly dismissed as faulty
 in the Soon and Baliunas controversy.[1] In the United States there was already a hot political dispute over action on
 global warming following lobbying regarding the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and on July 28, Republican Jim Inhofe made
 a Senate speech citing Soon and Baliunas to support his view "that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax
 ever perpetrated on the American people".[4] Also in 2003,Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published a paper
 questioning the statistical methods used in the Mann et al. paper, and there was continued debate on these issues
.Hans von Storch regards that paper as of little consequence, and believes his paper of 2004 to be the first significant
 criticism.[5] At the request of Congress, a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council was set up
, which reported in 2006 supporting Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some
 statistical failings but these had little effect on the result.[6] U.S. Rep. Joe Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield
 requested Edward Wegman to set up a team of statisticians to investigate, and they supported the view that
 there were statistical failings, although their report has itself been criticized on several grounds.
More than twelve subsequent scientific papers, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records
, produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the
 pre-20th century "shaft" appears. Almost all of them supported the IPCC conclusion that the warmest decade in
 1000 years was probably that at the end of the 20th century

Climate change glossary k-w



Climate change glossary


K
How does adaptation differ from mitigation? And what is REDD? The jargon of climate change can be hard to grasp. Use this glossary to decode it.
Kyoto Protocol A protocol attached to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets legally binding commitments on greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialised countries agreed to reduce their combined emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels during the five-year period 2008-2012. It was agreed by governments at a 1997 UN conference in Kyoto, Japan, but did not legally come into force until 2005.

L

LDCs Least Developed Countries represent the poorest and weakest countries in the world. The current list of LDCs includes 49 countries - 33 in Africa, 15 in Asia and the Pacific, and one in Latin America.
LULUCF This refers to Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Activities in LULUCF provide a method of offsetting emissions, either by increasing the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (i.e. by planting trees or managing forests), or by reducing emissions (i.e. by curbing deforestation and the associated burning of wood).

M

Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate A forum established in 2009 by US President Barack Obama to discuss elements of the agreement that will be negotiated at Copenhagen. Its members - Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the UK and the US - account for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions. The forum is a modification of the Major Economies Meeting started by the former President George Bush, which was seen by some countries as an attempt to undermine UN negotiations.
Methane Methane is the second most important man-made greenhouse gas. Sources include both the natural world (wetlands, termites, wildfires) and human activity (agriculture, waste dumps, leaks from coal mining).
Mitigation Action that will reduce man-made climate change. This includes action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or absorb greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

N

Nairobi work programme The Nairobi work programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change is a five year programme (2005-2010) under the UN Framework on Climate Change. Its objective is to assist all parties, in particular developing countries, to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; and to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions, on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis.
Natural greenhouse effect The natural level of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, which keeps the planet about 30C warmer than it would otherwise be - essential for life as we know it. Water vapour is the most important component of the natural greenhouse effect.
Non-annex I countries The group of developing countries that have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol. They do not have binding emission reduction targets.

O

Ocean acidification The ocean absorbs approximately one-fourth of man-made CO2 from the atmosphere, which helps to reduce adverse climate change effects. However, when the CO2 dissolves in seawater, carbonic acid is formed. Carbon emissions in the industrial era have already lowered the pH of seawater by 0.1. Ocean acidification can decrease the ability of marine organisms to build their shells and skeletal structures and kill off coral reefs, with serious effects for people who rely on them as fishing grounds.

P

Per-capita emissions The total amount of greenhouse gas emitted by a country per unit of population.
ppm (350/450) An abbreviation for parts per million, usually used as short for ppmv (parts per million by volume). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested in 2007 that the world should aim to stabilise greenhouse gas levels at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in order to avert dangerous climate change. Some scientists, and many of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, argue that the safe upper limit is 350ppm. Current levels of CO2 only are about 380ppm.
Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide The levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere prior to the start of the Industrial Revolution. These levels are estimated to be about 280 parts per million (by volume). The current level is around 380ppm.

R

Renewable energy Renewable energy is energy created from sources that can be replenished in a short period of time. The five renewable sources used most often are: biomass (such as wood and biogas), the movement of water, geothermal (heat from within the earth), wind, and solar.
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, a concept that would provide developing countries with a financial incentive to preserve forests. The Copenhagen conference is expected to finalise an international finance mechanism for the post-2012 global climate change framework.

S

Stern review A report on the economics of climate change led by Lord Nicholas Stern, a former World Bank economist. It was published on 30 October 2006 and argued that the cost of dealing with the consequences of climate change in the future would be higher than taking action to mitigate the problem now.

T

Technology transfer The process whereby technological advances are shared between different countries. Developed countries could, for example, share up-to-date renewable energy technologies with developing countries, in an effort to lower global greenhouse gas emissions.
Tipping point A tipping point is a threshold for change, which, when reached, results in a process that is difficult to reverse. Scientists say it is urgent that policy makers halve global carbon dioxide emissions over the next 50 years or risk triggering changes that could be irreversible.
Twenty-twenty-twenty (20-20-20) This refers to a pledge by the European Union to reach three targets by 2020: (a) a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels; (b) an increase in the use of renewable energy to 20% of all energy consumed; and (c) a 20% increase in energy efficiency. The EU says it will reduce emissions by 30%, by 2020, if other developed countries also pledge tough action.

U

UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of international agreements on global environmental issues adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The UNFCCC aims to prevent "dangerous" human interference with the climate system. It entered into force on 21 March 1994 and has been ratified by 192 countries.

W

Waxman-Markey bill Another name for the Boxer-Kerry bill, which aims to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions. See Boxer-Kerry bill.
Weather The state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind and other meteorological conditions. It is not the same as climate which is the average weather over a much longer period.

Climate change glossary e-j


Climate change glossary


E
How does adaptation differ from mitigation? And what is REDD? The jargon of climate change can be hard to grasp. Use this glossary to decode it.
Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) A scheme set up to allow the trading of emissions permits between business and/or countries as part of a cap and trade approach to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The best-developed example is the EU's trading scheme, launched in 2005. See Cap and trade.
EU Burden-sharing agreement A political agreement that was reached to help the EU reach its emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol (a reduction of 8% during the period 2008-2012, on average, compared with 1990 levels). The 1998 agreement divided the burden unequally amongst member states, taking into account national conditions, including greenhouse gas emissions at the time, the opportunity for reducing them, and countries' levels of economic development.

F

Feedback loop In a feedback loop, rising temperatures on the Earth change the environment in ways that affect the rate of warming. Feedback loops can be positive (adding to the rate of warming), or negative (reducing it). The melting of Arctic ice provides an example of a positive feedback process. As the ice on the surface of the Arctic Ocean melts away, there is a smaller area of white ice to reflect the Sun's heat back into space and more open, dark water to absorb it. The less ice there is, the more the water heats up, and the faster the remaining ice melts.
Flexible mechanism Instruments that help countries and companies meet emission reduction targets by paying others to reduce emissions for them. The mechanism in widest use is emissions trading, where companies or countries buy and sell permits to pollute. The Kyoto Protocol establishes two flexible mechanisms enabling rich countries to fund emission reduction projects in developing countries - Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
Fossil fuels Natural resources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, containing hydrocarbons. These fuels are formed in the Earth over millions of years and produce carbon dioxide when burnt.

G

G77 The main negotiating bloc for developing countries, allied with China (G77+China). The G77 comprises 130 countries, including India and Brazil, most African countries, the grouping of small island states (Aosis), the Gulf states and many others, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.
Geological sequestration The injection of carbon dioxide into underground geological formations. When CO2 is injected into declining oil fields it can help to recover more of the oil.
Global average temperature The mean surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000 surface temperature observation stations and sea surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and data buoys.
Global energy budget The balance between the Earth's incoming and outgoing energy. The current global climate system must adjust to rising greenhouse gas levels and, in the very long term, the Earth must get rid of energy at the same rate at which it receives energy from the sun.
Global dimming An observed widespread reduction in sunlight at the surface of the Earth, which varies significantly between regions. The most likely cause of global dimming is an interaction between sunlight and microscopic aerosol particles from human activities. In some regions, such as Europe, global dimming no longer occurs, thanks to clean air regulations.
Global warming The steady rise in global average temperature in recent decades, which experts believe is largely caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The long-term trend continues upwards, they suggest, even though the warmest year on record, according to the UK's Met Office, is 1998.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) A measure of a greenhouse gas's ability to absorb heat and warm the atmosphere over a given time period. It is measured relative to a similar mass of carbon dioxide, which has a GWP of 1.0. So, for example, methane has a GWP of 25 over 100 years, the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol. It is important to know the timescale, as gases are removed from the atmosphere at different rates.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) Natural and industrial gases that trap heat from the Earth and warm the surface. The Kyoto Protocol restricts emissions of six greenhouse gases: natural (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane) and industrial (perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride).
Greenhouse effect The insulating effect of certain gases in the atmosphere, which allow solar radiation to warm the earth and then prevent some of the heat from escaping. See also Natural greenhouse effect.

H

Hockey stick The name given to a graph published in 1998 plotting the average temperature in the Northern hemisphere over the last 1,000 years. The line remains roughly flat until the last 100 years, when it bends sharply upwards. The graph has been cited as evidence to support the idea that global warming is a man-made phenomenon, but some scientists have challenged the data and methodology used to estimate historical temperatures. (It is also known as MBH98 after its creators, Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes.)

I

IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific body established by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical, and socio-economic work relevant to climate change, but does not carry out its own research. The IPCC was honoured with the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

J

Joint implementation (JI) An agreement between two parties whereby one party struggling to meet its emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol earns emission reduction units from another party's emission removal project. The JI is a flexible and cost-efficient way of fulfilling Kyoto agreements while also encouraging foreign investment and technology transfer.

Climate change glossary a-b


Climate change glossary


How does adaptation differ from mitigation? And what is REDD? The jargon of climate change can be hard to grasp. Use this glossary to decode it.

A

Adaptation Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought.
Adaptation fund A fund for projects and programmes that help developing countries cope with the adverse effects of climate change. It is financed by a share of proceeds from emission-reduction programmes such as the Clean Development Mechanism.
Annex I countries The industrialised countries (and countries in transition to a market economy) which took on obligations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Their combined emissions, averaged out during the 2008-2012 period, should be 5.2% below 1990 levels.
Annex II Countries which have a special obligation under the Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources and transfer technology to developing countries. This group is a sub-section of the Annex I countries, excluding those that, in 1992, were in transition from centrally planned to a free market economy.
Anthropogenic climate change Man-made climate change - climate change caused by human activity as opposed to natural processes.
Aosis The Alliance of Small Island States comprises 42 island and coastal states mostly in the Pacific and Caribbean. Members of Aosis are some of the countries likely to be hit hardest by global warming. The very existence of low-lying islands, such as the Maldives and some of the Bahamas, is threatened by rising waters.
AR4 The Fourth Assessment Report produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2007. The report assessed and summarised the climate change situation worldwide. It concluded that it was at least 90% likely that the increase of the global average temperature since the mid-20th Century was mainly due to man's activity.
Atmospheric aerosols Microscopic particles suspended in the lower atmosphere that reflect sunlight back to space. These generally have a cooling affect on the planet and can mask global warming. They play a key role in the formation of clouds, fog, precipitation and ozone depletion in the atmosphere.

B

Bali action plan A plan drawn up at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, in December 2007, forming part of the Bali roadmap. The action plan established a working group to define a long-term global goal for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and a "shared vision for long-term co-operative action" in the areas of mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology.
Bali roadmap A plan drawn up at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, in December 2007, to pave the way for an agreement at Copenhagen in 2009 on further efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol. The roadmap gave deadlines to two working groups, one working on the Bali action plan, and another discussing proposed emission reductions by Annex I countries after 2012.
Baseline for cuts The year against which countries measure their target decrease of emissions. The Kyoto Protocol uses a baseline year of 1990. Some countries prefer to use later baselines. Climate change legislation in the United States, for example, uses a 2005 baseline.
Biofuel A fuel derived from renewable, biological sources, including crops such as maize and sugar cane, and some forms of waste.
Black carbon The soot that results from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass (wood, animal dung, etc.). It is the most potent climate-warming aerosol. Unlike greenhouse gases, which trap infrared radiation that is already in the Earth's atmosphere, these particles absorb all wavelengths of sunlight and then re-emit this energy as infrared radiation.
Boxer-Kerry bill The Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, now in the US Senate, also known as Waxman-Markey from 2007-2009 as it passed through the House of Representatives. This bill aims to reduce emissions by about 20% from a 2005 baseline by 2020. The bill would create a US-wide carbon market, which in time would link up with other carbon markets, like the EU Emission Trading Scheme. The bill is not expected to get Senate approval until 2010.
Business as usual A scenario used for projections of future emissions assuming no action, or no new action, is taken to mitigate the problem. Some countries are pledging not to reduce their emissions but to make reductions compared to a business as usual scenario. Their emissions, therefore, would increase but less than they would have done.

Saturday 12 November 2011

climate change targets

'schizophrenia' over climate change targets

MPs warn of

Cottam power station 
Chancellor George Osborne says emissions reductions must not harm UK industry
The government's "schizophrenic attitude" to climate change is undermining investor confidence in low-carbon industries, MPs have warned.
The UK is committed to cutting emissions in half by 2025 but has said it will review that goal in 2014.
Climate Change Minister Greg Barker said a review was needed to ensure UK industry was not losing out by cutting much faster than the rest of Europe.
But the Environmental Audit Committee warned against sending mixed messages.
David Cameron says he wants his to be "the greenest government ever", but last week Chancellor George Osborne sparked anger among environmentalists when he told the Conservative Party conference the UK would cut emissions no faster than others in Europe, and environmental measures would not be taken at the expense of British business.
'Stroke of a pen'Earlier this year, the government signed up to the fourth in a series of tough "carbon budgets" - for the period 2023 to 2027.
Labour MP and committee chairwoman Joan Walley said the move suggested the UK really was determined to switch to a greener economy.
"Unfortunately, the government's somewhat schizophrenic attitude to climate change seems to be undermining that confidence," she said.

“Start Quote

Getting the rest of Europe to go further and faster in providing certainty to green investors is vital”
End Quote Greg Barker Climate Change Minister
"The chancellor's comments last week show that five years on from the Stern report, the Treasury still doesn't get climate change - or the risk it poses to global stability and economic prosperity."
Zac Goldsmith, a Conservative committee member, said policymakers must recognise "that with the stroke of a pen, they can make a good investment bad".
"Unless they provide real long-term certainty, the transition to a low-carbon economy will be slower and bumpier than it needs to be," he added.
Nick Molho, head of energy policy at WWF-UK, said: "Failing to clearly endorse the fourth carbon budget now will not only slow down urgent action on addressing climate change, it will also seriously undermine investment certainty in the UK's low-carbon sector and result in the UK missing out on the opportunity of creating hundreds of thousands of UK jobs in low-carbon manufacturing."
Mr Barker said the UK was doing more than any other nation to provide long-term certainty for those investing in the low-carbon economy.
"At the same time, it's right that we review progress towards the EU emissions goal in 2014 so that we're not disadvantaging British industry which would simply result in emissions being shipped overseas.
"Getting the rest of Europe to go further and faster in providing certainty to green investors is vital, which is why we're not letting up in pushing the EU to up its emissions reduction target to 30%."

Tuesday 18 October 2011

Climate change 'grave threat' to security and health

Food security was interwoven with the climate issue, speakers told the conference

Wheat grainsClimate change poses "an immediate, growing and grave threat" to health and security around the world, according to an expert conference in London.
Officers in the UK military warned that the price of goods such as fuel is likely to rise as conflict provoked by climate change increases.
A statement from the meeting adds that humanitarian disasters will put more and more strain on military resources.
It asks governments to adopt ambitious targets for curbing greenhouse gases.
The annual UN climate conference opens in about six weeks' time, and the doctors, academics and military experts represented at the meeting (held in the British Medical Association's (BMA) headquarters) argue that developed and developing countries alike need to raise their game.
Scientific studies suggest that the most severe climate impacts will fall on the relatively poor countries of the tropics.
UK military experts pointed out that much of the world's trade moves through such regions, with North America, Western Europe and China among the societies heavily dependent on oil and other imports.
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, climate and energy security envoy for the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), said that conflict in such areas could make it more difficult and expensive to obtain goods on which countries such as Britain rely.
"If there are risks to the trade routes and other areas, then it's food, it's energy," he told BBC News.
"The price of energy will go up - for us, it's [the price of] petrol at the pumps - and goods made in southeast Asia, a lot of which we import."
Coffee climate
A number of recent studies have suggested that climate impacts will make conflict more likely, by increasing competition for scare but essential resources such as water and food.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, for example, recently warned that climate change "will increase the risks of resource shortages, mass migration and civil conflict", while the MoD's view is that it will shift "the tipping point at which conflict occurs".
Troops in Helmand Province, Afghanistan Armed forces are "the gas-guzzlers of the world"
Alejandro Litovsky, founder of the Earth Security Initiative, said that even without the increasing effect of conflict, prices of essential goods were bound to rise.
"From the year 2000 onwards, we have been seeing commodity prices climb, and this is not likely to stop," he said.
"It is primarily driven by resource scarcity, and the trends suggest that depletion of these natural resources is unlikely to be reversed in the near future without drastic interventions."
He also said that degradation of natural resources such as forests and freshwater was removing much of the resilience that societies formerly enjoyed.
Last week, multinational coffee house Starbucks warned that climate change threatened the world's coffee supplies in 20-30 years' time.
Compromised by carbon
The military officers at the meeting also emphasised the interest that armed forces have in reducing their own carbon footprint.
In Afghanistan, for example, fuel has to be delivered by road from Pakistan.
By the time it reaches its destination, it can cost 10 times the pump price. And the convoys are regularly targeted by opposing forces.
Several officers admitted that armed forces were "the gas-guzzlers of the world" - and while that was sometimes necessary in operations, reducing fossil fuel use and adopting renewables wherever possible made sense from economic and tactical points of view.
Rear Admiral Morisetti recalled that when commanding an aircraft carrier, it took a gallon of oil to move just 12 inches (30cm), while as many as 20 tonnes per hour were burned during a period of intensive take-off and landing.
"You can do that [with oil prices at] $30 a barrel, but not at $100 or $200," he said.
Health gains
On the health side, doctors warned of a raft of impacts, particularly in developing countries.
Hunger and malnutrition were likely to increase, and some infectious diseases were likely to spread, they said.
Poorer societies could expect to see an unholy symbiosis between the two, with under-nourished people more prone to succumb to infections.
Tackling carbon emissions, by contrast, would bring a range of health benefits, they argue in their statement.
"Changes in power generation improve air quality.
"Modest life style changes - such as increasing physical activity through walking and cycling - will cut rates of heart disease and stroke, obesity, diabetes, breast cancer, dementia and depressive illness.
"Climate change mitigation policies would thus significantly cut rates of preventable death and disability for hundreds of millions of people around the world."
No cause for optimism
As the UN summit in South Africa approaches, the statement here calls on the EU to increase its ambition and pledge to reduce emissions by 30% from 1990 levels by 2020, rather than the current target of 20%.
Currently, there does not appear to be political consensus for such a move within EU governments, however.
Additional recommendations are that developing country governments should analyse climate threats to their health and security, and that all governments should stop construction of new coal-fired power stations without carbon capture and storage (CCS) - which, as commercial CCS systems do not exist, would as things stand amount to a complete ban.
Without urgent action, carbon emissions could rise to levels that should cause major alarm, said Chris Rapley, professor of climate science at University College London.
Already, he noted, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen to about 380 parts per million [ppm] - whereas in the millions of years before the pre-industrial era, it fluctuated between about 180ppm during Ice Ages and about 280ppm in the warm interglacial periods.
"If we don't do something, then at the rate we're going, carbon emissions will continue to accelerate, and the atmospheric concentration is not going to be 450ppm or 650ppm by the end of the century, but 1,000ppm," he said.
"That is 10 times the difference between an Ice Age and an interglacial; and you have to be a pretty huge optimist to think that won't bring major changes."


Tuesday 11 October 2011

'schizophrenia' over climate change targets


Chancellor George Osborne says emissions reductions must not harm UK industry

The government's "schizophrenic attitude" to climate change is undermining investor confidence in low-carbon industries, MPs have warned.
Cottam power stationThe UK is committed to cutting emissions in half by 2025 but has said it will review that goal in 2014.
Climate Change Minister Greg Barker said a review was needed to ensure UK industry was not losing out by cutting much faster than the rest of Europe.
But the Environmental Audit Committee warned against sending mixed messages.
David Cameron says he wants his to be "the greenest government ever", but last week Chancellor George Osborne sparked anger among environmentalists when he told the Conservative Party conference the UK would cut emissions no faster than others in Europe, and environmental measures would not be taken at the expense of British business.
'Stroke of a pen'
Earlier this year, the government signed up to the fourth in a series of tough "carbon budgets" - for the period 2023 to 2027.
Labour MP and committee chairwoman Joan Walley said the move suggested the UK really was determined to switch to a greener economy.
"Unfortunately, the government's somewhat schizophrenic attitude to climate change seems to be undermining that confidence," she said.

“Start Quote

Getting the rest of Europe to go further and faster in providing certainty to green investors is vital”
End Quote Greg Barker Climate Change Minister
"The chancellor's comments last week show that five years on from the Stern report, the Treasury still doesn't get climate change - or the risk it poses to global stability and economic prosperity."
Zac Goldsmith, a Conservative committee member, said policymakers must recognise "that with the stroke of a pen, they can make a good investment bad".
"Unless they provide real long-term certainty, the transition to a low-carbon economy will be slower and bumpier than it needs to be," he added.
Nick Molho, head of energy policy at WWF-UK, said: "Failing to clearly endorse the fourth carbon budget now will not only slow down urgent action on addressing climate change, it will also seriously undermine investment certainty in the UK's low-carbon sector and result in the UK missing out on the opportunity of creating hundreds of thousands of UK jobs in low-carbon manufacturing."
Mr Barker said the UK was doing more than any other nation to provide long-term certainty for those investing in the low-carbon economy.
"At the same time, it's right that we review progress towards the EU emissions goal in 2014 so that we're not disadvantaging British industry which would simply result in emissions being shipped overseas.
"Getting the rest of Europe to go further and faster in providing certainty to green investors is vital, which is why we're not letting up in pushing the EU to up its emissions reduction target to 30%."


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More patients in Scotland given antidepressants

More patients in Scotland given antidepressants 13 October 2015   From the section Scotland Image copyright Thinkstock Image ca...