rising food prices re-emerging as a threat to global growth and stability

G20 Must Act To Stabilize Food Prices. “With, the G20 industrial and developing nations should prioritize the provision of food for the poor, World Bank President Robert Zoellick says. In an opinion piece in Thursday's FT, Zoellick sets out nine action points to ensure the poor have access to food. …

French President Nicholas Sarkozy has identified food price volatility as a priority for his country as it takes the presidency of the G20 in 2011. …Zoellick called for more efforts to understand the relationship between international prices and local prices in poor countries. And he said food aid should be exempted from export bans. …” [Dow Jones/Factiva]

Reuters reports that “… ‘The answer to food price volatility is not to prosecute or block markets, but to use them better,’ Zoellick wrote in an opinion piece in Thursday's FT urging G20 leaders to put access to food at the top of its agenda. ‘By empowering the poor the G20 can take practical steps towards ensuring the availability of nutritious food,’ he wrote. …

He also called for an international code of conduct to exempt humanitarian food aid from export bans. …Other steps include improving supply transparency and long-weather forecasting, creating small humanitarian reserves in disaster-prone regions and providing alternatives to export bans and price fixing. Risk management products, such as weather insurance or a hedge on energy prices to keep transport and input costs low, should also be considered, he said.” [Reuters/Factiva]

The opinion by Zoellick published in the FT also writes that “…Increase public access to information on the quality and quantity of grain stocks. Better information reassures markets and helps calm panic-induced price spikes. Multilateral institutions could help identify ways to improve transparency.

Improve long-range weather forecasting and monitoring, especially in Africa. Accurate long-range weather forecasting is taken for granted by farmers and purchasers in the developed world; in poor countries where yields depend on rainfall, poor crop projections amplify price swings. Better weather forecasting would enable people to plan ahead, and help anticipate needs for assistance. The World Meteorological Organisation and the World Bank are already helping, but more is needed. …

Ensure effective social safety nets. It is vital that we protect the most vulnerable populations, such as pregnant and lactating women and children under two. We need to connect agriculture and nutrition, and help countries target those most in need at reasonable cost.

Give countries access to fast-disbursing support as an alternative to export bans or price fixing. To help countries avoid policies that harm their own farmers and neighbors, we need to provide reliable, fast alternatives customized to local needs. The World Bank has created a crisis response window under the International Development Association (IDA), its $49bn fund for the poorest countries, and launched a rapid-response Food Security Fund, but we could also explore credit lines or loans with repayment suspension and extension during price shocks. …

The answer to food price volatility is not to prosecute or block markets, but to use them better. By empowering the poor, the G20 can take practical steps towards ensuring the availability of nutritious food. Mr Sarkozy has shown leadership in putting this issue on the G20 agenda; the G20 must now act to put food first.” [The Financial Times/Factiva]

Food Prices Surge, Lifting Unrest Fears. “A prominent indicator of international food prices hit a record high in December, sounding a warning about looming threats to the world's poor and to global growth. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's monthly food price index rose for the sixth consecutive month to 214.7, topping the previous peak, 213.5, reached in June 2008.

The index doesn't measure domestic retail prices, which can be affected by a wide range of factors, including government subsidies. Instead, the index tracks export prices and can still serve as a barometer of what consumers may pay. The prior record was set months after violent food riots struck several nations, an experience that is heightening concerns about potential consequences from the current rise. …” [The Wall Street Journal/Factiva]

FT notes that “…The warning from the UN body comes as inflation is becoming an increasing economic and political challenge in developing countries, including China and India, and is starting to emerge as a potential problem even in developed countries, including the UK and the eurozone.

Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the FAO in Rome, said the spike was ‘alarming’, but added the situation was not yet a crisis similar to 2007-08, when food riots broke out in more than 30 poor countries, from Bangladesh to Haiti. …Abbassian painted a sombre outlook, warning that agricultural commodities prices were likely to rise further. ‘It will be foolish to assume this is the peak,’ he said. …” [The Financial Times/Factiva]

Dow Jones reports that Abbassian “… said poorer countries will at some point have to tap the international markets for foodstuffs. ‘That is the worrisome development...We consider the [current] prices quite punitive for the poorer countries.’ Abbassian said there is more likelihood that prices will rise in 2011 than fall. Any potential price correction is unlikely until the middle of the summer when the next harvests are due to begin.” [Dow Jones/Factiva]

"So feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your heart's content."

Last December UK's coldest for 100 years

Crisp, wintry weather turned usually fluid attractions into static features

Last month was the coldest December documented for the UK since nationwide records began 100 years ago, the Met Office has confirmed.

For central England, it was the second coldest December since 1659.
However, the first analysis released of global temperatures shows 2010 was one of the warmest years on record.
The UK's harsh weather was caused by anomalously high air pressure that blocked mild westerly winds and brought cold air south from the Arctic.
The provisional monthly Met Office figures show the UK temperature averaged -1C - a long way below the previous coldest December, in 1981, which registered -0.1C.
The December average for the century-long series is 4.2C.
It was also the coldest calendar month since February 1986, the Met Office reports.

“Start Quote

Feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your heart's content”

End Quote Dr Roy Spencer University of Alabama

"It's been an exceptional month, there's no question about that - it will go down in history as one to remember," said chief meteorologist Ewen McCallum.

"Our records go back to 1910 and it's certainly the coldest since then, so it's the coldest December in 100 years," he told BBC News.
However, the month also turned out unusually sunny and dry.
Less than half the expected amount of precipitation (snow and rain) fell, making it the third driest December in the national data series.
And the country bathed in sunny conditions for nearly 40% longer than average.
As a whole, 2010 was colder in the UK than in recent years - the 12th coldest year in the series, but also among the 10 driest and sunniest.

December 2010 in graphics: "One to remember"

The Met Office has yet to release its global analysis.
But earlier this week the University of Alabama at Huntsville in the US, which collates temperature data gathered by satellites, declared it to be the second warmest year since the satellite record began in 1979.Click to playClick to plaarren Bett explains why December was the coldest in the UK since nationwide records began 100 years ago."As far as the race for warmest year goes, 1998 (0.424C) barely edged out 2010 (0.411C), but the difference (0.01C) is nowhere near statistically significant," wrote Dr Roy Spencer on the project's website.
"So feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your heart's content."
The Met Office analysis, plus those from two other US centres, are anticipated later this month.
The sequence of unually cold UK winter weather has raised the question of whether this is now the norm; but Mr McCallum urged caution in deducing patterns from what could just be natural variability.
"Variability is like a fruit machine: you can have a warm winter, a mild winter, three mild winters, you can have four cold winters," he said.
"Obviously there's something going on given we've now had three in a row - but we've had three wet summers in a row as well, and it's impossible to nail this and say 'that's because of this' - it's all part of variability."
It was not yet clear, he said, whether the 2010/11 winter would turn out to be unusually cold overall, given that we are little more than one-third of the way through the season.

Greenwashing biotech

Greenwashing biotech

Monday, 30 August 2010 22:41

Greenwashing biotech
Lucy Sharratt
Common Ground, September 2010
http://www.commonground.ca/iss/230/cg230_biotech.shtml


Ten years ago, Monsanto tried to convince the world – Europe, in particular - that genetically engineered (GE) crops were needed to 'feed' the hungry. At that time, the message was largely greeted with derision as a cynical ploy to sell a product that no one, including people in developing countries, wanted.


Now, the biotech industry is regrouping and re-branding itself, but the PR message looks very familiar. Food and climate change - two urgent global crises - are the context for a second major public relations push for genetic engineering. This time, however, there is an added twist: biofuels and the promise that biotechnology can fuel the world as well as feed it.


This month, the Agricultural Biotechnology Industry Conference (ABIC: September 12-15) "Bridging Biology and Business" kicks off in Saskatoon with a “Flower Power Biodiesel Workshop" aimed at the public. During this conference, we will likely see more media stories about how GE crops are needed to solve the major crises of our time. Conference sponsors include Bayer CropScience, the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Genome British Columbia, Novozymes and Ag-West Bio Inc.


Believe the hype?


The biotech industry is attempting to participate in sounding the alarm over the global food crisis. One of ABIC's keynote speakers, Julian Cribb, a journalist from Australia, will present a talk entitled "The Coming Famine: risks and solutions for global food security." (This is also the name of his new book.) Cribb will stress that the urgent “global food security problem” is one of resource scarcity: we are running out of water, farmland and oil and that these and other factors, like the collapse of fisheries and changes in local climates, will all constrain our ability to meet future food needs. He is right, of course, and this is where the biotechnology industry wants to insert itself. No one disagrees that there is a world food crisis so the industry can argue this point without debate and try to take the moral high ground. Controversy arises, however, due to the corporate agenda to sell patented GE technologies as the solution, at a profit.


While industrial agriculture receives ever increasing criticism, from which it cannot defend itself, the biotech industry is strategically trying to paint its technologies as ecological and equally compatible with other smaller, less-intensive models of farming. "There is an urgent need, not only to redouble the agricultural research effort worldwide but to develop a new ‘eco-agriculture’ that is sustainable and less dependent on heavy use of energy, water, nutrients and other increasingly scarce industrial inputs,” says Cribb.


Recently, the biotech industry tested the eco-PR waters with articles arguing that genetically engineered crops should be accepted in organic agriculture (GE is currently prohibited in organic farming), a move that stands as testimony to the growing strength of organics and the coming showdown between organics and GE where only one will survive.


Cribb goes on to say that creating the new eco-agriculture is “humanity’s most pressing scientific challenge.” This characterization of the problem as a scientific one is the perfect description for the biotech industry because it invites them to put their GE crops and GE trees forward as the solution. Not surprisingly, ABIC’s closing keynote address is entitled “The Global Challenges Ahead in Energy, Security and Food.”


He blinded me with science


ABIC is a Canadian creation from the industry-associated Ag-West Bio Inc., which describes itself on its website as being “at the forefront of Saskatchewan’s bio-economy.” Ag-West members include the now defunct Canadian GM crop company Performance Plants Inc., medical giant Pfizer Canada Inc., biotech and pesticide corporation Dow AgroSciences Canada as well as government departments Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Industry Canada and the Department of international Trade. The premier of Saskatchewan is scheduled to participate in the opening ceremonies.


ABIC will offer workshops from industry, academia and government, which highlight GE and related research and inventions under the three themes “Energy & Bioproducts, Health, Sustainability.” Genetic engineering is not the only technology on the table, however, as the presentation entitled “Synthetic Biology Solutions” makes clear. One of the major sponsors of ABIC 201, the company Novozymes, is experimenting with synthetic biology to create enzymes to more efficiently break down feedstocks into biofuels. The presentation “Agbiotech: The Global Sustainability Challenge” by Dr. Prem Warrior of the Gates Foundation – which is spending millions to establish what it calls a “Green Revolution for Africa,” despite the protest of African farmers – is sponsored by Novozymes.


The goal of industry conferences is that of networking and selling ideas. The conferences are designed to get everyone on board with a common communications strategy and to reaffirm the industry’s ideological position for corporate employees and scientists.


Saskatchewan’s Ministry of Agriculture, for example, is sponsoring a presentation called “Addressing Environmental Sustainability Through Biotechnology” by Clive James of the ISAAA (International Service of the Acquisition of Agri-biotechnology Applications). Every year, ISAAA publishes global GE crop statistics in reports that should be objective, but which are actually based on industry reporting and steeped in narrative in favour of the industry.


ISAAA has recently completed “a biosafety and biotech communication skills enhancement training” for Philippine government officials in a training that was part of a series of “capacity building and technology acceptance initiatives” related to GM eggplant product development, the product that farmers and consumers in India have soundly rejected. The communication workshop module “allowed the participants to improve their skills to effectively share information, respond proactively to inquiries and anticipate public’s information needs in relation to issues raised about the Bt eggplant technology.”


Real solutions are in the hands of farmers


In its “Proposals for family farm-based, sustainable agriculture,” La Via Campesina, the international movement of small scale farmers, states, “The major impediment to achieving sustainable ways of producing food is not the lack of appropriate technologies or the lack of knowledge of people working the land. The biggest obstacle is the way in which international and national policies, as well as the agro industry, are interfering in the food production system, forcing farmers to adopt unsustainable methods of production through a model of competition and ongoing industrialization.”


Across the world, small farmers are fighting to retain their knowledge and skills for the future. Dr. Melaku Worede, world-renowned director of Ethiopia’s National Gene Bank, argues, “Plant genetic resources are seldom ‘raw materials.’ They are the expression of the current wisdom of farmers who have played a highly significant role in the building up of the world’s genetic resource base.” Dr. Worede says, “Talk to the farmers. Go to their fields. Their knowledge of diversity and their selection criteria for different traits are the keys.”


Regassa Feyissa, director of the Ethio-Organic Seeds Association agrees, noting that farmers are sharing their detailed knowledge of how plants adapt to their soils and local weather with government researchers. “After a couple of days among farmers during a workshop in the Ethiopia highlands, the researcher from the national agricultural institute cried. They were tears of joy and sadness… In all his years of study in labs and formal research stations, no one had taught him to seek out the most important action in the food system: a farmer,” Feyissa recounts. According to Feyissa, lack of farmer involvement in research is often the cause of problems in the first place.


The criticism faced by Monsanto and other corporations – that their GE crops are inappropriate for small farmers and local conditions – have led corporations to pay some lip service to working with small farmers, particularly in developing countries. Because they are trying to sell their GE crops in Africa and Asia and have come across the political and cultural power of small farmers, the biotech industry is trying to paint a kinder, gentler image of itself as a cooperative research partner.


The ABIC Foundation states, “Helping the developing world through agricultural biotechnology is a complex challenge. An all-encompassing solution to this enormous challenge could only be achieved by the joint efforts of all those presently trying to find an answer. That’s precisely ABIC’s main focus: building a better world.” (www.abic.ca/abic2010/newsletter/ABIC2010-newsletter-Nov09.htm) “Helping” with GE, however, is precluded by the centrality of the profit motive and the reality that the technology is patented.


At best, genetic engineering is a distraction that diverts resources and attention away from the real solutions; the worst-case scenario is that it actually destroys the possibility of creating those real and long-lasting solutions. The more we rely on high-tech solutions, the more we place ourselves at the mercy of those corporations that own and sell them. Faris Ahmed of USC, Canada’s oldest development agency, argues, “Most of all, food sovereignty is about making choices that will keep land, resources, and food production practices in the hands of those who know their landscapes best: farmers.”


The future of food relies on the level of control in the hands of farmers while the success of the biotechnology industry fundamentally requires eradicating that control

"We need to double food production,

Enviropig™

The Enviropig™ is a genetically enhanced line of Yorkshire pigs with the capability of digesting plant phosphorus more efficiently than conventional Yorkshire pigs. These pigs produce the enzyme phytase in the salivary glands that is secreted in the saliva. When cereal grains are consumed, the phytase mixes with the feed as the pig chews. Once the food is swallowed, the phytase enzyme is active in the acidic environment of the stomach, degrading indigestible phytate in the feed that accounts for 50 to 75% of the grain phosphorus.

Figure 1. Phytase produced in the salivary glands and secreted in the saliva increases the digestion of phosphorus contained in feed grains.

Since the Enviropig™ is able to digest cereal grain phosphorus there is no need to supplement the diet with either mineral phosphate or commercially produced phytase, and there is less phosphorus in the manure. When the phosphorus depleted manure is spread on land in areas of intense swine production there is less potential of phosphorus to leach into freshwater ponds, streams and rivers. Because phosphorus is the major nutrient enabling algal growth that is the leading cause of fish kills resulting from anoxic conditions, and reduced water quality, the low phosphorus manure from Enviropigs has a reduced environmental impact in areas where soil phosphorus exceeds desirable levels. Therefore the enviropig biotechnology has two beneficial attributes, it reduces feed cost and reduces the potential of water pollution. Furthermore, the technology is simple, if you know how to raise pigs, you know how to raise EnviropigsThe BBC's Jeremy Cooke has had rare access to some genetically modified Enviropigs in Canada

In a small complex of nondescript barns set in the flat, snow-covered fields of Ontario is a scientific project which, some argue, represents the new frontier of a technology that could benefit millions of people around the world.

For others what is happening here is weird, dangerous science.

The pigs they are breeding could be among the first genetically modified farm animal to be approved for human consumption.

“Start Quote

"I am very worried and I think people around the world should be worried about what's happening in North America”

End Quote Lucy Sharratt Anti-GM campaigner

The huge controversy over the introduction of genetically modified crops is well documented, but this seems to take that debate a step further, and into even more troubled waters.

The project here is called Enviropig. The animals inside the clean, warm barns look like normal pigs and behave like normal pigs, but they are living, breathing wonders of modern science.

Each one contains genes from mice and E.coli bacteria, which have been inserted into their DNA with absolute precision.

Those genes make a small but important difference to the way these pigs process their food.

Ordinarily, pigs cannot easily digest chemicals called phosphates. That means that the stuff that comes out of the back end can be toxic and damaging to the environment. The phosphates are easily washed into waterways, where they can produce a hugely fertile environment for plants. But the plants grow so rapidly that they choke the stream or river and cause huge damage to the ecosystem.

THE ENVIROPIG

Between 50% and 75% of the phosphorus present in cereal grains including corn, soybeans, barley and wheat is present in an indigestible compound called phytate that passes through the pig's digestive tract. The Enviropig is a genetically enhanced line of Yorkshire pigs with the capability of digesting plant phosphorus more efficiently than conventional Yorkshire pigs.

• Source: University of Guelph

The genetic modification enables these pigs to digest phosphates, which means they are less polluting and cheaper to feed.

Controversial

Professor Rich Moccia of the University of Guelph is proud of what has been achieved.

"It's the forefront of discovery in the scientific community. It's one of only two animals right now using this kind of technology. It really is mind-boggling when you think of it."

But it is controversial. To those who have campaigned so long and hard against the introduction of Genetically Modified (GM) crops, the notion of genetically engineered animals, such as Enviropig and fast-growing GM salmon, is a new front in a long war.

In Toronto, the Big Carrot supermarket is among the few GM-free outposts in North America. They have been fighting for years to hold back the tidal wave of genetically modified produce.

For anti-GM campaigner Lucy Sharratt, the very notion of transgenic animals is a nightmare.

Click to play

Click to play

Lucy Sharratt, of the Canadian Biotechnology Action Network, discusses her concerns

"This is an absolutely critical time when North America is at the very centre of the global conflict over genetically engineered animals - to break open a whole new area of application of this technology, which we had never imagined would be possible.

"I am very worried and I think people around the world should be worried about what's happening in North America," she says.

Clearly the debate remains deeply polarised. But there are also some indications that the debate may be slowly shifting.

Dr Mart Gross, of the University of Toronto, used to oppose the idea of GM crops and animals. Now he has changed his mind. Feeding the human population, he says, must come first, and GM animals and plants may help.

"We need to double food production," he says. "We currently have a global population of almost seven billion and we are looking at nine, 10 or 11 billion by 2050.

"Where is that food going to come from? We have to produce more from less."

The inventors of Enviropig know that it is by no means certain that government regulators will ever approve GM animals for human consumption.

But the massive challenge of feeding a rocketing global population, and doing it in a sustainable way, could shift the debate and ultimately dictate whether Enviropigs end up on our dinner plates.

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584 pregnancies despite contraceptive implant Implanon

Implanon was first available in the UK in 1999

Continue reading the main story

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• Implanon: your stories
• Safe sex warning in party season
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Nearly 600 women have become pregnant despite using a popular contraceptive implant, a health watchdog has said.

There have also been more than 1,600 reports of adverse reactions to the Implanon device, which is designed to prevent pregnancy for three years.

The NHS has been forced to pay compensation to several women because of the failures, Channel 4 News reported.

The implant maker, MSD, said no contraceptive was 100% effective.

It added that unwanted pregnancies may occur if the implant was not correctly inserted, and said it had a failure rate of less than 1% if inserted correctly.

Safety review

The Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency said that since the launch of Implanon in the UK 11 years ago, 584 women using it had become pregnant, with 1,607 reports of adverse reactions.

According to the Department of Health around 1.4 million women have used Implanon since it was first licenced in 1999.

The implant is a small plastic rod which releases hormones into the bloodstream, and is inserted under the skin of a woman's arm by a nurse or doctor.

The MHRA said it had also received complaints from doctors and nurses about difficulties inserting the device.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Implants are an excellent and usually extremely reliable method of birth control. But all contraceptives have a failure rate, and although with implants this is tiny, women do need to be aware”

End Quote Ann Furedi British Pregnancy Advisory Service

Late last year Implanon was replaced with a device called Nexplanon, which is designed to be inserted more easily.

The MHRA says although the implant had been replaced, "the safety of Implanon remains under close review."

Nine of the 584 women who reported an unwanted pregnancy used the terms "device failure", "device dislocation", "device ineffective" and "device difficult to use" to describe their experience.

Others reported scarring and problems with removing the 40mm long implant.

Correct insertion

A lawyer for some of the 14 women claiming for personal loss and damage said many had not realised the pre-loaded applicator had not released the implant.

Stephanie Prior, partner of Anthony Gold Solicitors, told Channel 4 News: "I have clients who fell pregnant as they were unaware that the Implanon device had not been inserted into their arm and they suffered psychological difficulties as a consequence of falling pregnant and later miscarrying or having to make the difficult decision to terminate the pregnancy."

Compensation

The NHS has paid compensation to nine women who between them received £118,000.

In a statement, manufacturers MSD said: "The basis for successful use of Implanon is a correct and carefully performed subdermal insertion of the implant in accordance with the product instructions.

"If the implant is not inserted in accordance with the instructions and on the correct day, this may result in an unintended pregnancy. In addition, no contraceptive is 100% effective."

Correct insertion of the device could be an issue, according to the Faculty of Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare. Their vice-president, Dr Alyson Elliman said:

"With the older device, Implanon, there is a risk of non-insertion - when someone might think they have inserted it but in fact the implant is still sitting in the tube which then gets removed. But clinicians are also relying on women having accurate recall of their menstrual cycle, and whether they have already risked pregnancy during that cycle."

Ann Furedi, chief executive of the British Pregnancy Advisory Service, added: "Implants are an excellent and usually extremely reliable method of birth control. But all contraceptives have a failure rate, and although with implants this is tiny, women do need to be aware."

Advice from the British Pregnancy Advisory Service is that women should not panic, even if they have one of the old versions of Implanon. They said:

"As long as you can feel the device under your skin and you are within the three year time frame there is no reason to get it checked, and no reason to request the newer version. However if you cannot feel it, or if you are having any problems with it, do get it seen. An ultrasound or x-ray will quickly establish whether the device is there."

More on This Story

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• Implanon: your stories 05 JANUARY 2011, HEALTH
• Safe sex warning in party season 09 DECEMBER 2010, HEALTH
• Action on teenage pregnancy urged 14 DECEMBER 2010, HEALTH

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• MSD
• MHRA
• British Pregnancy Advisory Service

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• Health: Implants

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Now, we have discovered the Denisovans

All change: Theories of human ancestry get an overhaul

By Professor Clive Finlayson Director, Gibraltar Museum

The Denisovans are known from one location in Siberia, but they probably ranged more widely

Continue reading the main story

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• Ancient humans interbred with us
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• To mate, or not to mate: The Neanderthal question

For over 150 years the name "Neanderthal" has been household property.

And it has become associated with dim-witted, ape-like brutes that scurried across vast ice-covered wastes waiting for the day when our ancestors - the intelligent and modern humans - would wipe them from the face of the Earth.

Now, we have discovered the Denisovans and I wonder what image we will choose to give them.

But there are already hints that suggest that the status quo will prevail and we will find reasons for making these people a little bit less clever than our direct ancestors.

The irony is that the scientific community is going to have to come round to the acceptance that the Denisovans and the Neanderthals also belonged to the species which we call Homo sapiens.

The Denisovans, for that is how we must know them (for now as the authors of a recent paper in Nature have preferred not to give them a scientific name), lived in southern Siberia.

We do not know how much further their range extended but it seems highly unlikely that they were confined to this region alone.

The site in which their remains were found seems to have been occupied over two periods, one older than 50,000 years ago and the other between 30,000 and 23,000 years ago.

It seems that it is not possible at this stage to determine whether the Denisovans occupied the site in one or other period, or both. Either way they must have lived close to Neanderthals or our own ancestors, depending on which time period they lived in.

An earlier study already showed that Neanderthals contributed a percentage of their genome to some of us, right across Eurasia from the west to the extreme south-east.

The present study shows that the Denisovans were closer genetically to the Neanderthals than to us but that we all shared a remote common ancestor.

Reality check

The Denisovans do not seem to have contributed much to the European gene pool but their genes made it all the way into that of the Melanesians.

Put together, this evidence shows us that humans formed an interwoven network of populations with varying degrees of gene flow between them. Some humans may have looked quite different from each other, revealing a combination of adaptation to local environments and genetic drift, but it does seem as though those differences were not large enough to prevent genetic interchange.

Continue reading the main story

DNA from ancient remains shows the Denisovans shared a common ancestor with Neanderthals

• Neanderthal family was cannibalised
• Ancient humans interbred with us
• New ancient human identified from DNA
• Neanderthal genes 'survived in us'
• To mate or not to mate
• So we're part Neanderthal. What now?
• Neanderthals enjoyed broad menu

I have suggested that humans, at any point in time in our evolutionary history, behaved as a polytypic species; they consisted of an array of regional populations clustered into geographical races which had not achieved independent species status - they could exchange genes when they met.

And this is not a new idea either. The great evolutionary biologist Ernst Mayr proposed it for the human species as far back as 1950! An obsession with turning each new fossil into a distinct species has clouded the biological reality that we are now retrieving.

One aspect of the findings of this recent study shows that the Neanderthals experienced a severe genetic bottleneck in the course of their history which means that their overall genetic diversity was much lower than that of present-day humans.

The Denisovans seem to have escaped the bottleneck too. Now, the interesting point for me is that the bottleneck, affecting all Neanderthals, was an ancient one.

It predated the arrival of modern humans into Eurasia and thus must have been the result of an ecological impact and not competition.

This conclusion is exactly what I have been predicting over the past decade, that Neanderthal populations were in decline for a long time and well before the arrival of modern humans.

Food for thought

Almost concurrently with the Denisova findings, a paper published in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) journal looked at an unusual case - a family group of Neanderthals who lived in northern Spain and whose remains were preserved.

These Neanderthals from El Sidrón have provided DNA that reveals that the males were very similar to each other but the females were not. The conclusion is that Neanderthals were patrilocal - the males stayed put while the females wandered between clans and tribes.

Researchers have retrieved DNA from a Neanderthal family found at El Sidron cave (pictured)

What is more, these Neanderthals lived in small groups with low genetic diversity. Added to the Denisova paper findings, we can begin to understand the population biology of the Neanderthals. As I have suggested previously, their populations became heavily fragmented and gene flow between them became reduced.

They were in crisis but not because of the arrival of modern humans. Like pandas today they were in danger of extinction.

They were not in such danger because they were ape-like brutes either. A paper published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has provided conclusive evidence that Neanderthals regularly ate plants and even cooked them before eating them!

A detailed study of Neanderthal teeth from Spy in Belgium and Shanidar in Iraq found traces of plant matter including grass seed starches that had been cooked. We had suspected that Neanderthals consumed plants for some time, and it was logical to do so, but now we have the evidence.

So those who claimed that Neanderthals only ate meat, an almost physiological impossibility, have to rethink their argument.

Seafood platter

In 2008, we published evidence of marine mammal and mollusc consumption by Neanderthals in Gorham's Cave, also in the PNAS journal. I have been arguing that omnivory is a defining characteristic of the genus Homo, including the Neanderthals, and these latest findings have confirmed this conclusion.

So the Neanderthals weren't stupid apes but humans, and they interbred with our own ancestors. Yet they were affected by environmental perturbation and went extinct.

Neanderthals living at Gibraltar enjoyed a broad menu including monk seals

This is a lesson for us all to learn. But in spite of the evidence there are those who will resist. A hallmark, for the archaeologists, of modern humanity has been the Upper Palaeolithic technology.

In recent years the boundary between this technology and its makers has become increasingly diffuse and I would argue that technology can no longer be used as proxy for human taxa.

Now, the findings at Denisova have included typically Upper Palaeolithic technology. It would be ironic if we were to establish that it was the Denisovans, not modern humans, who had made them.

But the authors of the Denisova paper are unsure of the association between the bones and the tools and have opted for "the reasonable hypothesis that the phalanx and molar belong to the older occupation".

In other words the Denisovans lived prior to 50,000 years ago and the tools were made between 30,000 and 23,000 years ago by invisible humans.

Professor Clive Finlayson is director of the Gibraltar Museum and adjunct professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Toronto. He is the author of Neanderthals and Modern Humans (Cambridge University Press, 2004) and The Humans who went Extinct (Oxford University Press, 2009).

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• Neanderthal genes 'survive in us' 06 MAY 2010, SCI/TECH
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Pregnant women 'face more risks overnight'

Dr Tony Falconer says more senior doctors should work overnight in hospitals

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• Vulnerable pregnant 'missing out'
• Pregnant women rights questioned
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Pregnant women who give birth overnight at NHS centres are more likely to receive inferior treatment, the UK's chief maternity specialist has said.

Dr Tony Falconer told the Guardian that inexperienced staff on night shifts were more likely to make poorer decisions than their day colleagues.

He said more senior doctors overnight would mean "fewer mishaps".

The Department of Health said all mothers should expect "excellent care" all the time.

Less experience

Dr Falconer, president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, told the newspaper that most out of hours maternity care was safe, but that the issue was of immense concern.

He said: "I don't want to frighten people and say that the quality of care at 2am is appalling, but it's not the same level.

The consultant gynaecologist said that mothers faced more risk at night because trainee obstetricians and other integral staff such as anaesthetists tended to be less experienced than those who worked day shifts.

He said: "Obstetric care isn't the same at 3am as it is at 3pm, and it should be. This is a matter of huge concern.

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“Start Quote

One of the ironies of the health service... is this culture that the NHS basically runs at one level for 40 hours a week, and at a completely different level for the rest of the week”

End Quote Dr Tony Falconer

"Care overnight isn't as robust as it is at 9am or 2pm. It's not as good. At 2am, you do not have the same experience."

He added that junior obstetric doctors could lack the technical skills and experience needed to use forceps or vacuum to help make the birth process easier.

They may also take longer to realise if new mothers had any complications after giving birth.

Staffing reviews

He also said that there appeared to be a disproportionate number of NHS payouts over alleged medical negligence in childbirth which involved babies who were born overnight.

The NHS reportedly spends around £300m a year settling these type of cases - money, Dr Falconer said, could be spent on paying for up to 1,000 senior doctors.

He said the NHS ran a multi-tier service - which was inappropriate for acute cases.

"One of the ironies of the health service, and this view is shared by very senior people, is this culture that the NHS basically runs at one level for 40 hours a week, and at a completely different level for the rest of the week.

"And when you are dealing with acute services, that shouldn't happen," he said.

Increased birth rate

Louise Silverton, deputy general of the Royal College of Midwives, said she agreed with Dr Falconer's comments.

She added: "The same applies to midwife staffing levels, because they're always on a knife-edge due to the increased birth rate.

"We used to have busy periods, less busy and quiet periods. Now we only have very busy and exceptionally busy periods.

"If things ever go wrong or get particularly busy, especially during the night, then we have limited capacity to cope."

In a statement, a Department of Health spokeswoman said that all mothers "should expect consistently excellent maternity services no matter what the time of day or night".

She added: "Our proposals for maternity networks are designed so that mothers are able to get safe and quality maternity services. Local maternity services should ensure there are appropriate numbers of professional and support staff, and staffing levels should be reviewed and audited annually."

She said the government was also committed to improving the number of midwives.

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Related stories

• Vulnerable pregnant 'missing out' 22 SEPTEMBER 2010, HEALTH
• Pregnant women rights questioned 29 JULY 2010, HEALTH
• 'Myth-busting' pregnancy advice 19 FEBRUARY 2010, HEALTH

From other news sites

• Daily Star Night maternity care 'inferior'Full Story 25 hrs ago

• Observer 'Midwives can't go on working in a system where safety is too often compromised' 27 hrs ago

• Guardian.co.uk Maternity care in UK on verge of breakdown, says top midwife 34 hrs ago

• UPI Doctor: Hospital care not as good at night 40 hrs ago

• Telegraph Women giving birth at night more at risk 40 hrs ago

• About these results

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• Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists
• Royal College of Midwives
• Guardian

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Tuesday January 6 2009

Not everything in black and white makes sense

By Dr Alicia White

If you’ve just read a health-related headline that has caused you to spit out your morning coffee (“Coffee causes cancer” usually does the trick), it’s always best to follow the Blitz slogan: “Keep Calm and Carry On”. On reading further, you’ll often find the headline has left out something important, such as, “Injecting five rats with really highly concentrated coffee solution caused some changes in cells that might lead to tumours eventually. (Study funded by The Association of Tea Marketing)”.

The most important rule to remember is: don’t automatically believe the headline. It is there to draw you into buying the paper and reading the story. Would you read an article called, “Coffee pretty unlikely to cause cancer, but you never know”? Probably not.

To avoid spraying your newspaper with coffee in the future, you need to analyse the article to see what it says about the research it is reporting on. Bazian (the company I work for) has appraised hundreds of articles for Behind The Headlines on NHS Choices, and we’ve developed the following questions to help you figure out which articles you’re going to believe and which you’re not.

Does the article support its claims with scientific research?

Your first concern should be the research behind the news article. If an article touts a treatment or some aspect of your lifestyle that is supposed to prevent or cause a disease, but doesn’t give any information about the scientific research behind it, then treat it with a lot of caution. The same applies to research that has yet to be published.

Is the article based on a conference abstract?

Another area for caution is if the news article is based on a conference abstract. Research presented at conferences is often at a preliminary stage and usually hasn’t been scrutinised by experts in the field. Also, conference abstracts rarely provide full details about methods, making it difficult to judge how well the research was conducted. For these reasons, articles based on conference abstracts should be no cause for alarm. Don’t panic or rush off to your GP.

Was the research in humans?

Quite often, the “miracle cure” in the headline turns out to have only been tested on cells in the laboratory or on animals. These stories are regularly accompanied by pictures of humans, which creates the illusion that the miracle cure came from human studies. Studies in cells and animals are crucial first steps and should not be undervalued. However, many drugs that show promising results in cells in laboratories don’t work in animals, and many drugs that show promising results in animals don’t work in humans. If you read a headline about a drug or food “curing” rats, there is a chance it might cure humans in the future, but unfortunately a larger chance that it won’t. So there is no need to start eating large amounts of the “wonder food” featured in the article.

How many people did the research study include?

In general, the larger a study the more you can trust its results. Small studies may miss important differences because they lack statistical “power”, and are also more susceptible to finding things (including things that are wrong) purely by chance.

You can visualise this by thinking about tossing a coin. We know that if we toss a coin the chance of getting a head is the same as that of getting a tail – 50/50. However, if we didn’t know this and we tossed a coin four times and got three heads and one tail, we might conclude that getting heads was more likely than tails. But this chance finding would be wrong. If we tossed the coin 500 times - i.e. gave the experiment more "power" - we'd be more likely to get a heads/tails ratio close to 50/50, giving us a better idea of the true odds. When it comes to sample sizes, bigger is usually better. So when you see a study conducted in a handful of people, treat it with caution.

Did the study have a control group?

There are many different types of studies appropriate for answering different types of questions. If the question being asked is about whether a treatment or exposure has an effect or not, then the study needs to have a control group. A control group allows the researchers to compare what happens to people who have the treatment/exposure with what happens to people who don’t. If the study doesn’t have a control group, then it’s difficult to attribute results to the treatment or exposure with any level of certainty.

Also, it’s important that the control group is as similar to the treated/exposed group as possible. The best way to achieve this is to randomly assign some people to be in the treated/ exposed group and some people to be in the control group. This is what happens in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and is why RCTs are considered the “gold standard” for testing the effects of treatments and exposures. So when reading about a drug, food or treatment that is supposed to have an effect, you want to look for evidence of a control group, and ideally, evidence that the study was an RCT. Without either, retain some healthy scepticism.

Did the study actually assess what’s in the headline?

This one is a bit tricky to explain without going into a lot of detail about things called proxy outcomes. Instead, bear in mind this key point: the research needs to have examined what is being talked about in the headline and article. (Somewhat alarmingly, this isn’t always the case.)

For example, you might read a headline that claims, “Tomatoes reduce the risk of heart attacks”. What you need to look for is evidence that the study actually looked at heart attacks. You might instead see that the study found that tomatoes reduce blood pressure. This means that someone has extrapolated that tomatoes must also have some impact on heart attacks, as high blood pressure is a risk factor for heart attacks. Sometimes these extrapolations will prove to be true, but other times they won’t. Therefore if a news story is focusing on a health outcome that was not examined by the research, treat it with a pinch of salt.

Who paid for and conducted the study?

This is a somewhat cynical point, but one that’s worth making. The majority of trials today are funded by manufacturers of the product being tested – be it a drug, vitamin cream or foodstuff. This means they have a vested interest in the results of the trial, which can potentially affect what the researchers find and report in all sorts of conscious and unconscious ways. This is not to say that all manufacturer-sponsored trials are unreliable. Many are very good. However, it’s worth seeing who funded the study to sniff out a potential conflict of interest.

Should you “shoot the messenger”?

Overblown claims might not necessarily be down to the news reporting itself. Although journalists can sometimes misinterpret a piece of research, at other times the researchers (or other interested parties) over-extrapolate, making claims their research doesn’t support. These claims are then repeated by the journalists.

Given that erroneous claims can come from a variety of places, don’t automatically assume they come from the journalist. Instead, use the questions above to figure out for yourself what you’re going to believe and what you’re not.

How can I find out more?

It’s not possible to cover all the questions that need to be asked about research studies in a short article, but we’ve covered some of the major ones. Visit some of the useful links above if you’re interested in finding out more

29 December 2010 Last updated at 14:24

GPs report flu cases rose again last week

By Helen Briggs Health reporter, BBC News

Officials are urging patients in high-risk groups to get immunised

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Flu cases have risen again in England and Wales, according to figures from GPs.

Levels of flu - including H1N1 swine flu - have gone up by almost 50% in the past week, says the Royal College of GPs.

The flu tally reached 124 per 100,000 people in the week to Christmas, up from 86 cases in the previous week.

Health officials in England define an epidemic as 200 cases per 100,000.

Wednesday's figures come amid political debate over the decision not to give all young children a flu jab this winter.

Labour has criticised the lack of protection for healthy under-fives, but the government says they were excluded on medical and not cost grounds.

The latest figures show the highest rates are in children aged under five - at 184 cases per 100,000.

Professor Steve Field, a former chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said there was no indication in the current expert advice that across-the-board vaccination of young children is necessary.

Click to play

Click to play

Professor Steve Field, the former the chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said those children at risk should be vaccinated as soon as possible.

He told the BBC: "Looking at the evidence - looking at where we are in this early epidemic, there doesn't seem to be any indication.

"But we do need to do better in those children who have asthma, who've got heart disease or other diseases and particularly pregnant women.

"I'm worried about the number of sick pregnant women who haven't been vaccinated. And we can prevent this illness by vaccination, which is safe."

The latest figures give an indication of the extent of this winter's flu outbreak, based on people visiting GP surgeries in England and Wales with flu-like symptoms.

Flu cases have risen steadily in England and Wales from 32.8 per 100,000 in week 49, to 85.8 in week 50, to 124.4 in week 51.

The latest figures for Scotland, released on 23 December, show a rate of GP consultations for flu of 45.8 per 100,000.

In Northern Ireland, the latest figures available - for week 50 - show an increase from 28.1 to 64.6 per 100,000.

New figures for flu cases in Scotland and Northern Ireland will be released on Thursday.

A Department of Health spokesperson said the figures for England and Wales were "in keeping with what we would expect during a winter flu season".

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Flu advice

• Symptoms of seasonal flu include sudden onset of fever, cough as well as sore throat, aching muscles and joints
• Antivirals are drugs given to high risk patients who become ill with seasonal influenza
• They are most effective if taken within 48 hours of onset and may help limit the impact of some symptoms and reduce the potential for serious complications
• Source: Health Protection Agency

The spokesperson added: "But everyone can do their bit to help keep well - simple measures like washing your hands help stop flu spreading.

"The Chief Medical Officer has issued clear advice to get the seasonal flu jab if you are in a vulnerable group, particularly pregnant women and people with underlying health conditions, as well as those aged 65 and over."

The vaccine protects against H1N1, the same strain of flu behind last year's swine flu pandemic, and also protects against the H3N2 and B strains.

Meanwhile, managers at a hospital on Merseyside have suspended visiting until further notice to minimise the chances of visitors passing on colds and flu.

Restrictions apply to relatives of patients at Arrowe Park Hospital in Birkenhead, Wirral.

French 'epidemic'

A flu outbreak has also been reported in France.

French health experts said on Wednesday the country was officially in the grip of a flu epidemic, with 176,000 people sick, two of whom have died.

In the UK, 27 people have died from flu this season, of which nine were children. Among the fatalities, 24 had swine flu. Three suffered from another strain, flu type B.

According to the World Health Organisation, flu epidemics result globally in about three to five million cases of severe illness per year and 250,000-500,000 deaths.

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• Under-five flu vaccine defended 28 DECEMBER 2010, UK
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Related Internet links

• Swine Flu
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• BBC Health: reduce your flu risk

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Swine flu vaccine safety probed over link to rare sleep disorder

The safety of a swine flu vaccine is to be investigated by European drugs regulators after it was linked to a rare condition that causes people to fall asleep suddenly.

An investigation has been launched after a swine flu vaccine was linked to a condition that causes people to fall asleep suddenly. Photo: Getty Images

By Rebecca Smith, Medical Editor 2:38PM BST 27 Aug 2010

4 Comments

The investigation has been prompted after health officials in Finland announced they were suspending the vaccination programme there following reports of narcolepsy in people who had received the jab.

So far there have been 27 reports of suspected narcolepsy in people across Europe who had previously been vaccinated with Pandemrix, the H1N1 swine flu vaccine made by GlaxoSmithKline.

No cases have been reported in Britain.

In total more than 30m people in the European Union have been vaccinated with Pandemrix.

Narcolepsy is a rare condition and its causes are unknown. It can be dangerous if sufferers fall asleep while driving or operating machinery. It is thought there are 25,000 people with the condition in Britain but experts have estimated that 80 per cent of sufferers have not been diagnosed.

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Once diagnosed with the condition, which is long-term and has no cure, people are not allowed to drive.

The investigation will examine if Pandemrix was the likely trigger for the condition or whether it was a coincidence.

Finland suspended its national vaccination programme on Tuesday after eight suspected cases of narcolepsy following administration of the jab. A further ten cases have been reported in Sweden, six in France, and one each in Germany and Norway.

The European Medicines Agency will now investigate if there is any link, including how many people would normally be expected to suffer narcolepsy so this 'background rate' can be compared to with the number of cases observed after vaccination.

The Agency is also liaising with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, other drugs regulators and the World Health Organisation.

A spokesman for GlaxoSmithKline said: "Information surrounding the reported cases remains limited at the current time. GSK is conducting its own investigation in an effort to gather as much additional data as possible regarding the observed cases and is working closely with the regulatory authorities, including the European Medicines Agency (EMA)

"Global experience with previous large-scale immunisation programmes has shown that it is likely that a certain level of adverse events will be reported. The adverse events that are reported may be the result of underlying conditions, or new conditions that occur in temporal association with the vaccination, and some events may be related to the vaccine.

"Having reviewed the currently available data and information regarding the reported cases of narcolepsy, which remains limited at this time, as well as GSK’s own safety database, the Company has concluded that the currently available information is insufficient to assess the likelihood of a causal relationship between Pandemrix and narcolepsy."